Economy

Middle East Crisis  Economic Impact
EU Commissioner: Risk of Inflation Exceeding 3 Percent

EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis believes that inflation could exceed 3 percent this year if oil and gas prices continue to be so high, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.

The commissioner is said to have given the warning to the Union's finance ministers. In the scenario that Dombrovskis paints, the ECB could be forced to raise interest rates, the news agency notes.

Growth is also expected to be affected in 2026 if the war in the Middle East continues to cause energy prices to soar.

Middle East Crisis  Oil Market
Iran's oil continues to flow in the strait: "The US does not want to disrupt"

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may be at a standstill, but Iran still gets a significant share of its oil onto the world market, Reuters reports.

The US neither can nor wants to stop Iranian shipments through the strait, says Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi to TV4 Nyheterna

– The US does not want to disrupt the oil market and risk higher prices for American consumers, he says.

Since the war broke out, Iran has shipped between 14 and 17 million barrels of oil through the strait, according to data from various tracking services.

The Epstein Affair  The Investigation
FT: JP Morgan Ignored Warning Flags About Epstein

JP Morgan continued to handle Jeffrey Epstein's money for several years despite his sex crime conviction in 2008 and repeated warning signs of suspicious transactions, writes the Financial Times. During about 15 years in the bank's private banking business, Epstein is said to have carried out transactions of over $1 billion and withdrawn more than $5 million in cash.

– There were clear signs of financial crime, even after he became known as a sex offender, Senator Ron Wyden tells the newspaper.

The bank only ended the relationship in 2013 and has subsequently pointed to former top executive Jes Staley as an important reason why Epstein was allowed to remain as a client. JP Morgan has later paid hundreds of millions of dollars in settlements related to the scandal.
 

Swedish growth
Analysis: Fear may explain the government's sudden attack

2026 was the year when the recession was finally supposed to end and households would receive more money. The economic forecast could be washed away since the war in Iran began. Now the country is heading towards increasingly poorer times and the government is afraid of being blamed. Oisín Cantwell writes in a commentary in Aftonbladet.

Cantwell writes about the government's press conference during the day, which he believes seemed to be intended to pit itself against the opposition.

"Why this sudden attack? You don't have to be overly conspiratorial to suspect that Kristersson and Svantesson are nervous about what the war in Iran will do to the Swedish economy," he writes.

SR's Knut Kainz Rognerud also emphasizes that the crisis in the Middle East has made Sweden's – and the entire world's – economic situation more difficult.

The uncertainty is now significantly greater than it was just a few weeks ago, he notes. Despite the fact that the government has now lowered the country's growth forecast to 2.8 percent, he believes the forecast is still optimistic.

"It may have to be thrown in the trash pretty soon," he says in a radio broadcast.