Middle East Crisis

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Analysis: The consequences of the Iran war could be seen a mile away

Two things could be seen a mile away before the war in Iran broke out, writes Sky News' Dominic Waghorn in an analysis. One is that if you go after the ayatollah and his successors, Iran will attack pretty much everyone. The other is that it will be practically impossible to ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore the price of oil will skyrocket.

"Events in the Middle East have followed the exact script of 'what happens if you attack Iran?', a scenario that analysts have warned about for decades," writes Waghorn.

He also writes that Donald Trump wants to find a way out of the war, whether it happens this week, next week or later. For the Iranian regime, that means they just have to hold on.

The BBC's Helena Humphrey writes in an analysis that the Trump administration expresses great confidence in victory in the war and that attention is now focused on what will happen afterwards.

The view on this is unclear, however. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a press conference that the outcome will ultimately be in the US interest. At the same time, Trump said in an interview on Monday that the conflict could be the beginning of "building a new country".

"This contrasts with Hegseth's and the Pentagon's statements that this will not involve 'endless nation-building'", writes Humphrey.

Israel-Hezbollah
The conflict with Hezbollah could last longer than the Iran war

Israel expects the conflict with the Iran-backed Shia militia Hezbollah in Lebanon to last longer than the war against Iran, according to information to the Financial Times

Countries in the Middle East have also reportedly been informed of the situation, says a diplomat.

– Israel is preparing international actors for the war against Hezbollah to be prolonged and last longer than the war against Iran, says the diplomat.

Diplomatic attempts have also been made to prevent a broader Israeli effort. France has offered help in disarming Hezbollah. Lebanon has also said that the country wants to hold talks with Israel to bring an end to the fighting, but that attempt has been dismissed by both Israel and the United States, according to information provided to Axios.

A person with insight also states that Israel was planning to launch an offensive against Hezbollah even before the Israeli-American attacks on Iran began.

Reactions
Denmark temporarily closes its embassy in Iran

The Danish embassy in Iran has been temporarily closed. This was stated by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen at a press conference, reports TV2.

– Given the security situation in Tehran, we can no longer have Danish diplomats there, he says.

According to Rasmussen, the staff left the country a few days ago. He says Denmark wants to avoid a similar situation as in Afghanistan in 2021, when Danish diplomats had to be evacuated after the Taliban took power.

– It is very natural to withdraw staff before things go wrong.