Middle East Crisis Opinions on

Analysis: Saudi Arabia will be the only winner of the war

The Iran war is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the Gulf, several analysts write.

All Gulf countries have been attacked by Iran, primarily the United Arab Emirates, which has good relations with both Israel and the US, writes Johan Mathias Sommarström in an analysis in Aftonbladet. Civilian targets have also been bombed. The countries have in one fell swoop lost their image as safe and stable in an unstable region.

“A weakened and ostracized Iran paves the way for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to take the grip on the region that Saudi Arabia has long yearned for,” writes Sommarström.

All countries in the region will be forced to reevaluate their economic and security strategies, according to Allison Minor at the Atlantic Council think tank. She writes:

“Iran’s attacks, combined with expectations of a longer period of instability, have increased the perceived risks of hosting US bases at a time when Gulf countries are also questioning what they really gain from the bases.”

Analysis: Sanchez makes Trump a springboard in difficult domestic opinion

Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is standing up to Donald Trump not only out of conviction – but also because it benefits him domestically at a much-needed moment. Several analysts write this.

Jason Horowitz writes in the New York Times about how Spain’s criticism of the US attack on Iran is just the latest in a series of markings that “position Sanchez as the leader of the European left’s resistance to Trump.”

Opinion polls show that Sanchez has more than half the population against him, he writes. But another poll cited by Politico shows that three out of four Spaniards think “very badly” of Trump, and eight out of ten believe he is a threat to world peace. BBC Mundo’s Alicia Hernandez writes that Spanish public opinion is generally against war, regardless of political affiliation.

“Sanchez’s anti-Trump stances give his Socialist Party a chance to strengthen its voter base and fend off challenges from rivals further to the left,” writes Aitor Hernández-Morales in an analysis in Politico.