It will be a big problem for Ukraine's Gripen
The effect of Gripen in Ukraine is mainly determined by two things:
Which weapons are sent with it – and how quickly the stocks can be replenished.
The latter is the big problem.
For all the talk about drones as the solution to all military problems, it is telling that the frontline nation of modern war – literally and figuratively – places such importance on traditional combat aircraft.
Before 2030, Ukraine will buy and begin receiving deliveries of 20 Gripen Es, the latest version – a big step forward, especially in sensors and electronic warfare systems.
But even the 16 Gripen in version C/D, which Sweden will start sending next year, are modern and effective planes. The Swedish Air Force received its latest vehicle in 2015, and they have been continuously updated.
The Gripen can be delivered with Meteor, a world-leading long-range fighter.
Together with the radar reconnaissance plane Asc 890 that Sweden has already decided to send, the Gripen could, if it happens, make life really dangerous for Russians who even bother to enter Ukrainian airspace.
The Swedish planes will likely push Russian aircraft even further away from Ukraine's borders, and reduce the pressure from their glide bombs. They will also be able to be used against drones and cruise missiles.
However, no one should expect miracles.
This is a purchase that will have an effect in the long term, not immediately.
Gripen will become another tool in Ukraine's military toolbox rather than a "game changer".
At the same time, keeping a plane in the air is a huge, silent operation that most people probably don't think about.
The challenges ahead are many: Setting up supply chains for spare parts, training pilots and technicians, and developing basing and combat control.
But the biggest problem is probably the weapons.
Short-range American fighter missiles such as AMRAAM exist, and are produced in the thousands.
But the real muscles of the Gripen are European: the long-range Meteor and the Taurus 350 KEPD cruise missile.
There are bigger concerns here.
All European missiles are few in number and suffer from high prices and long delivery times.
Take Taurus.
It is to be integrated on the Gripen C/D before 2028 and is a very potent weapon against ground targets.
It has a stated range of 500 kilometers, carries 480 kilograms of explosives and has a tandem warhead to punch holes in hard targets, such as bunkers and fortified buildings.
But production has been almost non-existent for at least the past decade.
Of Germany's 600 ordered missiles, only 150 are said to be active, and the production line for the updated Taurus Neo variant is not expected to start until 2029.
The ability to strike deep is a European Achilles' heel, and it will also affect Ukraine.
In addition to the Taurus, there is the Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missile, which Britain and France have already sent. But production only restarted this summer, and it was then 15 years since the last order was placed.
European weapons that reach further than around the 500-kilometer mark are scarce.
The exception is the French Navy's Missile de Croisière Navale (MdCN), which has a range of over 1,000 kilometers, but a land-based version is not expected to be available before 2029.
Something similar to the American Tomahawk, which has a range of around 2,500 kilometers, does not exist.
Buying from the United States may not be possible either, even if we wanted to.
The 850 Tomahawk missiles that the United States has fired at Iran will take 10 years to replace at the current production rate.
Perhaps it is Ukraine, with its successful attacks deep into Russia, that will eventually build our ability to fight in depth, rather than the other way around.
De svenska planen kommer
sannolikt trycka bort ryskt flyg ännu längre från Ukrainas gränser, och
minska trycket från deras glidbomber. De kommer också att kunna
användas mot drönare och kryssningsrobotar.
Ingen bör dock förvänta sig underverk.
Det här är ett köp som ger effekt på lång sikt, inte omedelbart.
Gripen kommer snarare än ”game changer” att bli ytterligare ett redskap i Ukrainas militära verktygslåda.
Samtidigt är det en enorm operation i det tysta att hålla ett plan i luften, som de flesta nog inte tänker på.
Utmaningarna som väntar är många: Att sätta upp leveranskedjor för reservdelar, utbilda piloter och tekniker och att utveckla basering och stridsledning.
Men det största problemet är nog vapnen.
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