Trump's USA US-Cuba Relations

Analysis: Fewer Cubans May Strike Back Against Trump

The number of Cuban refugees to the US has decreased sharply during Donald Trump's second term as US president, compared to how it was under his predecessor Joe Biden. Cubans who want to leave their homeland are instead choosing to flee to other countries – which could ultimately harm Trump in his fight against the communist regime, analysts Gil Guerra and Diana Roy write in Foreign Policy.

When the refugees end up in places like Brazil and Mexico, opposition to the Cuban regime may decrease in the US, they say. The reason is that the Cuban diaspora in exile, which Guerra and Roy describe as "enduring" and "a powerful factor in American politics", loses strength when the number of refugees decreases.

At the same time, Michael J Bustamante and Richard Herrero write in Foreign Affairs that the communist regime should reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible. Recently, the White House has tightened the screws on Cuba – including by imposing new sanctions on companies doing business with the country and prosecuting the country’s former president Raúl Castro.

But so far, the regime has not agreed to any American demands – including one to cut its security ties with Russia and China. Bustamante and Herrero believe that Cuba’s stubbornness can be partly explained by the internal power struggles that are taking place within the regime’s leadership, where neither side wants to appear weak in the face of the United States.

“But the Cuban people deserve a reasonable future. And the most logical thing the Cuban regime can do is, ironically, to negotiate with the power that is damaging their economy,” they write.