The influx of refugees is part of Putin's war strategy. A weapon that can be triggered in the long run UN warning

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

The influx of refugees is part of Putin's war strategy 

A weapon that can be triggered in the long run UN warning 

 

Published: Less than 3 hours ago 

 

Updated: Less than 50 minutes ago 

 

This is a column. Analysis and opinions are the writer's own. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

A man started the war. 

 

In three weeks, a man has created the worst humanitarian catastrophe in Europe since World War II. 

 

It's no coincidence. 

 

The human catastrophe is an imaginary part of Vladimir Putin's warfare. 

 

That a single powerful person with his decisions can cause so much misery and suffering in such a short time is almost inconceivable. 

 

The civilian population in Ukraine is facing enormous hardships on all fronts when the Russian army, on Putin's orders, turns residential areas, hospitals and schools into rubble. 

 

But Putin also wants to export the war. The more Ukrainians fleeing their homeland, the better for Putin. In just over three weeks, more than three million have left the country, according to the UN. 

 

A total of ten million are on the run, most of them within the country. This means that a quarter of Ukraine's population has left their homes due to the war. So far, the Ukrainian refugees have been received with open arms. 

 

But as the flow of refugees increases, the social and economic strains on EU countries will also grow. A shopping mall in Kyiv was completely destroyed after Russian bombings during the night until Monday. 

 

 

A shopping mall in Kyiv was completely destroyed after Russian bombings during the night until Monday. Photo: Rodrigo Abd / AP 

 

Poland has already received over two million Ukrainians. The mayor of Warsaw says that with almost 400,000 refugees, they are starting to reach the ceiling for what they can do. Similar tones are heard from Moldova and other neighboring countries that have received the bulk of the refugee influx. 

 

It is not the good will that is lacking. But this is what the mayor tells the New York Times: 

 

- We want to receive everyone who needs help, but how many children can we have a place in the schools? How can we prevent the health system from collapsing? 

 

Break the agreement

 

More and more people are starting to come to Sweden and other countries further away. Last week, Sweden received more refugees from Ukraine than the total number of asylum seekers for the whole of last year. 

 

As there are no signs that the war is coming to an end, we can expect the refugee flow to continue to grow. 

 

Before the war, the UN made an estimate that 4-5 million would flee the war. Reality shows that there may be even more. 

 

 

Ukrainian refugees arrive in Berlin on Sunday. Ukrainian refugees arrive in Berlin on Sunday. Photo: Steffi Loos / AP 

 

Part of Putin's war strategy is to create a large influx of refugees into Europe. Although the refugees have so far been well received, Putin hopes that in the long run the refugees will create such great strains that the flow of refugees will break the agreement that has prevailed within the EU against Russia so far. 

 

Putin wants revenge for the sanctions and to cause as much misery as he can for the rest of Europe. 

 

There, the war refugees are a weapon whose full potential can be unleashed in the long run. Many in Europe are afraid that the war will spread physically, that Russian grenades will start raining down on Sweden, the Baltics, Poland and other countries. 

 

But Putin's war is already here in many different ways. Refugees from Ukraine queue at the Swedish Migration Agency at Jägersro in Malmö, Thursday 15 March.

 

 

Refugees from Ukraine queue at the Swedish Migration Agency at Jägersro in Malmö, Thursday 15 March. Photo: Johan Nilsson / TT 

 

The price increases for electricity and petrol and diesel are the most obvious. 

 

But food prices are also rising. 

 

Hunger is increasing 

 

Now the UN's World Food Program warns that the war will lead to famine in countries that cannot afford to compete with the rushing prices of grain and cooking oil. Another 13 million people could go hungry. Only since the invasion began, the world market price of wheat has increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and fertilizer by 40 percent. 

 

Russia not only produces oil and natural gas but is also the world's largest exporter of fertilizers. Belarus is also a major producer of fertilizers. 

 

Now the sanctions from the West make it difficult for both Russia and Belarus to sell their fertilizer. Prices have already risen due to more expensive natural gas.

 

Now it is becoming so expensive that many farmers around the world are forced to cut back on use, which contributes to reduced harvests. 

 

The human catastrophe is an imaginary part of Vladimir Putin's warfare, writes Wolfgang Hansson. 

 

 

The human catastrophe is an imaginary part of Vladimir Putin's warfare, writes Wolfgang Hansson. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / AP 

 

It does not stop there. 

 

For the past five years, Russia, together with Ukraine, has accounted for 30 percent of world exports of wheat and 75 percent of sunflower oil. 

 

The sanctions make it more difficult for Russia to export. The war makes it difficult for Ukraine both to export but above all to plant for this year's harvest. 

 

During the pandemic, we learned that it is dangerous to be dependent on a few countries for important goods. But the idea did not lead to much action, except possibly in terms of medical protective equipment.

 

The war in Ukraine shows how incredibly intertwined the world is and what enormous consequences even a limited war in a country in Europe has. 

 

There are many more than I have listed. Worst of all, the world is being held hostage by a single offended man who has suffered from greatness madness.