Vladimir Putin
Putin says yes but really means no
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 19.40
There is a diplomatic fox game going on about peace in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin does not want to disagree with President Trump.
That is why he says yes to a ceasefire when he really means no.
Quick version
Trump’s negotiating tactic is to threaten and pressure the parties to force them to agree.
He has already twisted the arm of Ukraine's Zelensky to force him to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. It is easier to start with the weak side.
Now it is Putin’s turn to be exposed to Trump’s buffoonish methods. Putin is smart and realizes that it would be foolish to say no outright to the ceasefire proposal put forward by the US.
So his answer is instead “yes, but…”.
Putin’s yes is accompanied by a series of conditions on things that should reasonably only be raised at a later stage when there is talk of real peace negotiations.
Putin already wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, that there will be no troops from NATO countries to monitor a ceasefire, and that Western arms aid must cease.
Trump's initial reaction was to thank Putin for his "promising" response but noted that it was "not complete." In other words, the American president is not satisfied.
Last night, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow. We don't know what was said inside the Kremlin walls. But one can assume that Wittkoff brought both some kind of whip and a bag of carrots to convince Putin not to give in to Trump's attempts to fulfill his election promise to fix peace in Ukraine.
No rush
But the question is whether Trump is prepared to press Putin as hard as he has pressed Zelensky.
So far, at least, he has not done so publicly.
The toughest statement was made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he said that if Putin says no to the US proposal, then you know that Russia is not interested in peace.
A clear signal to put pressure on Putin.
But it is obvious that Russia thinks that they have all the good negotiating cards. Unlike Trump, Putin is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.
On the contrary, things are going reasonably well for the Russian forces. They continue to advance along parts of the front line. In addition, they seem to be close to taking back the areas in the Russian Kursk province that Ukraine occupied in late summer.
Ukraine's idea was to be able to use Kursk as a bargaining chip and exchange it for Ukrainian territory that the Russians have taken. That possibility is shrinking every day.
The only thing Putin really fears is that Trump will retaliate if the Russian leader does not do what Trump wants him to do.
Retaliatory measures could mean the US sending large quantities of its most advanced weapons to Ukraine. Perhaps even going so far as to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would seriously complicate Russia's warfare and significantly strengthen Ukraine.
A possible solution
The US has already resumed arms shipments and is once again sharing military intelligence with Ukraine. This after Zelenskyy agreed to Trump's ceasefire.
Therefore, Putin is trying as much as possible to make it appear that he wants to accommodate Trump. Not least because Trump has completely changed US policy to become more Russia-friendly and has given Putin a possible way out of his international isolation. He does not want to waste that opportunity.
Putin talks a lot about wanting to speak to Trump directly or even meet him, but the hope that the two of them together could make up for Ukraine and Europe is over the top.
Trump is trying to entice a meeting but obviously wants a guarantee of success before agreeing to meet Putin.
To some extent, the negotiation game is being played out before our very eyes. The clearest example was when Zelensky was publicly humiliated in the White House.
But besides the public game, a lot is happening behind the scenes. We do not know what promises or threats Trump has made to Putin through his envoys.
Putin in a good mood
Putin must have wondered why Trump sent his Middle East envoy to Moscow to discuss peace in Ukraine instead of Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg.
Perhaps he wants to send a signal to Putin about a broader settlement that also includes more than Ukraine. Perhaps he just wants to confuse the Russian dictator.
How difficult it is for Trump to bring himself to put public pressure on Putin is evident when the foreign ministers of the G-7 countries, the world's richest, are currently meeting in Canada.
While other countries clearly want to point out Russia as the culprit for the war in Ukraine, the United States is resisting. It does not want to risk worsening relations with Putin by pointing out the obvious.
Ahead of the continued negotiations, Putin must be kept in a good mood. For now.
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