Benjamin Netanyahu
Netanyahu does not want the war to end

Wolfgang Hanssonอง

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.

Published 11.55

Israel's Prime Minister during a press conference at the White House in Washington D.C in February this year. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP

Israel was never set on fulfilling the ceasefire.

Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a permanent end to the war because he would then risk losing power.

But for President Trump, it is a setback if the war really starts again.

Quick version

• Israel has never planned to fulfill the ceasefire because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes a permanent end to the war, which threatens his political power and position.
• During the war, Israel has cut off aid shipments to Gaza, and last night's attacks focused on pressuring Hamas to release the hostages without withdrawing military forces completely.
• President Trump faces a challenge; he supports Israel but at the same time wants to avoid a re-escalation of the conflict that would affect his Middle East peace plan.

When the ceasefire began in January, there was a clear timetable for when negotiations on phase two would begin. Israel has delayed the process.

Above all, because phase two would involve Israel permanently withdrawing all its troops from Gaza.

Netanyahu does not want that for two reasons.

The handover of the hostages has clearly shown that Hamas is far from being militarily defeated, which was Israel's stated goal.

The far-right settler parties on which Netanyahu bases his government have made it clear that they will leave the government if the war against Hamas is not resumed. This would mean that Netanyahu's government is at risk of falling.

But even without that threat, Netanyahu knows that the moment the war in Gaza ends for good, responsibility will be demanded for Hamas's successful terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The ultimate responsibility was Benjamin Netanyahu.

His chances of remaining in power after the war are very small. On the contrary, he risks a prison sentence if he is convicted of corruption in one of the trials against him that are currently in limbo.

A woman with her child mourns one of the hundreds of victims of last night's Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Photo: Jehad Alshrafi / AP

Pressing Hamas

While it is tragic that Israel is now resuming its attacks on Gaza, it is not particularly surprising.

The decisive factor will be whether last night's attacks are primarily a way of putting pressure on Hamas to make concessions or whether Israel is permanently resuming hostilities.

The fact that the attacks so far have only been carried out from the air and have not involved any ground troops indicates that Israel wants to wait for Hamas' response before escalating further. Israeli data claims that Hamas has recruited 10,000 new fighters during the war.

Israel and the US want to try to pressure Hamas to continue releasing hostages without Israel completely withdrawing its troops from Gaza.

Hamas has so far refused, citing the fact that the last 59 hostages, half of whom are believed to be alive, will only be exchanged once phase two of the ceasefire has been agreed.

This is not particularly surprising either. The hostages are Hamas's only bargaining chip. As soon as all the living and the remains of the dead have been allowed to return to Israel, there is no longer any leverage over Israel.

Israel can then escalate its warfare without having to take into account the risk of accidentally killing some of the hostages.

Must balance Trump

We are talking about negotiations between two parties whose stated goal is to wipe each other out. Then there is ultimately not much to negotiate about.

Israel wants to make sure that Hamas can never again be involved in governing Gaza. Hamas wants the Jewish state to cease to exist.

Israel's prime minister still has to walk a difficult balancing act.

Israel is heavily dependent on US support in the form of advanced weapons. In the picture, Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump at a joint press conference in February this year. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP

He is heavily dependent on US and President Trump's support in the form of advanced weapons.

Trump has made it clear that he does not want to see a new start to the war. At the same time, he is even more unilaterally on Israel's side than his predecessor Joe Biden.

Trump has openly threatened that “the gates of hell will open” unless Hamas releases the remaining hostages.

Even more worrying for the Palestinians living in Gaza is that he has repeatedly launched a plan to force all Palestinians to leave Gaza in order to rebuild the enclave where 70 percent of all buildings are damaged or destroyed, including schools, hospitals and vital infrastructure.

Trump’s message has been that they will not be allowed to return, which the Palestinians see as another displacement similar to the one that occurred when Israel was founded in 1948.

Aid stopped

But Netanyahu must be prepared for Trump to suddenly turn against him if the American president perceives it as Netanyahu sabotaging his plans for peace in the Middle East.

If the war continues, it will also be a failure for Trump, who promised that he would fix peace.

Although Israel claims in last night's attacks that they have primarily targeted Hamas leaders and fighters, the broken ceasefire is really bad news for the residents of Gaza.

Most are still living in tents or in the ruins of their homes. Nearly 50,000 people have already been killed in the war. The majority are civilians.

Israel has stopped all aid from reaching Gaza for the past 17 days.

The humanitarian situation is still catastrophic and would of course deteriorate further if the war resumes.

But that would secure Netanyahu's hold on power.