Hard for Trump to surpass Obama
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Published 20.01
The bar is very high when President Trump negotiates an agreement to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The deal that President Obama arranged was condemned by Trump as "the worst deal the US has ever made" and thrown in the trash.
Most indications are that the new one will not be a bit better.
In the meantime, Iran has come much closer to its own atomic bomb.
Quick version
Negotiations between Iran and the US begin on Saturday.
They have been preceded by threats in which Trump promised to bomb Iran "in a way they have never experienced before" if they do not come to the negotiating table. Which of course made Iran respond with similar threats. Before the two combatants finally agreed that the best thing was probably to talk to each other instead of starting a war.
Iran is among the countries that Trump hates the most. He is not alone in that.
The country is ruled by an Islamist clerical dictatorship that creates instability throughout the Middle East and is also engaged in terrorist activities abroad.
When Trump in 2018 terminated the nuclear energy agreement that Obama had abandoned three years earlier, it gave Iran the opportunity to increase its uranium enrichment. Highly enriched uranium is one of the most important ingredients for building a nuclear weapon.
Before that, Iran sent most of its enriched uranium abroad. In addition, inspectors from the UN atomic energy agency IAEA were able to regularly inspect Iran's nuclear energy facilities on site.
All of that disappeared when Trump terminated the agreement and instead reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran.
Since then, the ayatollahs in Tehran have been able to increase the amount and degree of enrichment of their uranium without interference. The experts' statements vary, but everyone agrees that Iran is now closer to its own nuclear weapons than it was in 2018.
Some say that Iran is only months away from being able to build a nuclear weapon. Others claim a year.
When Trump revealed the other day that negotiations would begin this weekend, he was clear on one point. Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
- It's that simple, Trump declared.
But just as in the case of North Korea, it is highly unclear how this will work. The US and the UN said for decades that the old communist regime in Pyongyang was not allowed to have nuclear weapons. But today, no one can deny that North Korea is a nuclear power.
Iran itself claims that it has no plans to acquire nuclear weapons. But because it has been secretly building up its capacity, the outside world does not trust that promise.
Now Trump sees a golden opportunity to force Iran to dismantle its nuclear energy program. The regime in Iran is greatly weakened. The country has been rocked by major domestic protests in recent years. Iran's influence in the region has declined. The Assad regime in Syria, which was Iran's main ally in the Middle East, has fallen. Iran's proxy militia Hezbollah in Lebanon is greatly weakened after the war against Israel. The US is bombing the Houthi militia in Yemen, another of Iran's allies.
In addition, Israel knocked out parts of Iran's air defenses when it bombed Iranian targets last year. Air defenses that are supposed to protect Iran's nuclear facilities.
It is still difficult to see that Trump would be able to pressure Iran much further than Obama managed to do.
That agreement took several years to negotiate but only dealt with the ability to produce nuclear weapons.
Mike Waltz, Trump's national security adviser, claims that the goal now is to completely dismantle Iran's nuclear energy program in much the same way that Muammar Gaddafi was forced to give up Libya's nuclear weapons after the terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001.
In addition, Trump wants to place restrictions on Iran's long-range missiles. These are the ones that can carry nuclear weapons in the event of an attack.
On top of that, the US wants to negotiate to stop Iran as a sponsor of terrorism around the world.
As usual, Trump is in a hurry. He is impatient and wants to see results quickly. In addition, there is another deadline to take into account. In October, an agreement expires that means that Iran will automatically be hit by UN sanctions if they violate the old agreement. It is unlikely that any new UN sanctions will be possible in today's geopolitical situation.
There is another complicating factor for Trump. Iran has very close relations with Putin's Russia. Iran is supplying Russia with drones in the Ukraine war.
So, if Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine, there could be problems if he goes too hard on Iran. But perhaps he can hope that Russia can put pressure on Iran if Putin gets a good deal in Ukraine.
Trump has also promised voters not to start any new wars. So the question is whether the leaders in Tehran really take Trump's threat of bombing seriously or see it more as a negotiating tactic.
The one who will perform a miracle for Trump is the special envoy, billionaire Steve Witkoff, who already has his hands full negotiating peace in Ukraine and Gaza. He has no previous diplomatic experience.
If there is an agreement, Trump will present it as a success, regardless of its content. A success that bears his signature and not Obama's.
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