Midterm Elections The State of Public Opinion

Prices Weigh on Trump – Two Out of Three Are Dissatisfied

More than two-thirds of Americans are dissatisfied with how President Donald Trump has handled inflation and the rising cost of living, according to a survey by the Financial Times and Focaldata.

For nearly six out of ten voters, "lower prices and a stronger economy" is the single most important issue in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Respondents are divided on whether a Democratic-controlled Congress would lead to an improved economy, yet many independent voters believe the Democrats are handling inflation better than the Republicans.

Polls Could Be Wrong Again: "People Are Not Simple"

Opinion polls give the Democrats a clear advantage heading into the U.S. midterm elections, but there are plenty of examples of polling firms getting it wrong, the BBC reports.

Donald Trump has been underestimated in three consecutive presidential elections, and Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed won his primary by just one percentage point, despite polls predicting a double-digit margin.

Clifford Young, president of the polling firm Ipsos, says that predicting election results has become increasingly difficult as people abandon landlines and stop answering calls from unknown numbers. Furthermore, right-leaning voters are less likely to participate in such surveys.

He notes that there are always uncertainties in polling, though he believes the firms are steadily improving. One unavoidable challenge, he says, is that the subject matter involves human beings. – People are not simple.

Forecasting guru predicts a “blue tsunami” in the midterm elections

Statistician Nate Silver—whose forecasts for U.S. elections are considered among the most reliable—writes that a “blue tsunami” is in store for tomorrow’s midterm elections.

He reaches this conclusion following the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which indicates that the Democrats are on track for victory in seven key states—including Texas, a deep-red Republican stronghold.

On his Substack, Silver writes that his forecasting model gives the Democrats an 80 percent chance of wresting control of the Senate from the Republicans.

“Even if the Democrats were to lose a couple of these races—and I actually think there’s some bad news for them in Alaska—no Democrat is going to complain if the party manages to win the top five races on this chart,” Silver writes, accompanying an image that shows the Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas.