Then the war will end – Trump's weak hand revealed
How should you respond to a person who sets fire to an apartment building and then threatens the neighbors that "it will be bad" if they don't help put it out?
Donald Trump's actions in recent days show that the war in Iran will be decided on the oil market, not on the battlefield.
And that he put the US and the world in a terrible position.
Something quite extraordinary happened this weekend. Donald Trump asked for help. Showing vulnerability doesn't seem to be his favorite sport.
But in ett a post on Truth Social this weekend, he urged other countries to assist in keeping the vital Strait of Hormuz open.
“It should have always been a team effort – and now it is, which will bring the world together towards harmony, security and eternal peace.”
The occasional head of government must have had a hard time suppressing a hearty laugh.
Team effort? Harmony? Eternal peace? What does man say?
We’re talking about a president who went to war without consulting anyone, not even his allies in the region. Who has punished the entire world with tariffs and tried to threaten Greenland. Who has taken every opportunity to speak ill of Europe as some kind of parasite that feeds on American greatness.
Pretending that none of this has happened and calling for a team-building event where everyone is expected to play name-calling and hold hands is brazen, even for Trump.
It got worse. When the reactions to Trump's invitation to cooperate became understandably lukewarm, he escalated his tone and in an interview with the Financial Times he threatened that if aid ships were not immediately directed to Hormuz, it would be "very bad for the future of NATO."
He also believes that China should help, and says that he intends to postpone the upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping.
China? America's archenemy? Close to Iran and whose oil tankers are already allowed to pass through Hormuz?
It's as if Foxtrot were asking the Bandidos for a favor for old times' sake.
The somewhat desperate behavior shows that the war is now decided by a single thing: the price of oil.
Talking about money every time a war breaks out may seem cynical, and it is. But in today's conflicts, economics is as important a weapon as bombs and cruise missiles.
The United States and other countries have long waged a financial war against Iran in the form of sanctions. When it turned to military attacks, Iran has fought back by trying to push up the price of oil and thereby cause maximum economic damage.
This weekend, Iran continued to fire drones and missiles at the Gulf states and has also begun attacking alternative oil transport routes via the Red Sea. The country has dismissed any interest in a ceasefire or negotiations.
In the US, communication about the war is now handled primarily by those responsible for the economic effects, such as Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who tried to calm the market this weekend by saying that the war will be over “within weeks”.
The question is how?
Iran is currently showing no signs of giving up and the US’s own commander-in-chief, Dan Caine, is said to have explained to Donald Trump, according to the New York Times, that it is very difficult and risky to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means because it only takes a single militiaman equipped with a portable rocket in a high-speed boat to destroy an oil tanker.
Ultimately, the shipping companies that transport the oil will have to be convinced that they are not sending their crews straight into a death trap, which will not be easy.
In the television program “60 Minutes,”Bob McNally, former energy advisor to then-President George W. Bush, warns that there is really not much the United States can do.
Even if the United States continues its massive bombing of Iran, the regime can continue to hold the world economy in its grip with relatively small means.
It is no wonder that the heads of the US oil giants have tried to warn Trump that the oil crisis could worsen and become protracted.
This weekend' cry for help mixed with new threats shows that, despite the US military superiority, Trump paradoxically seems to be sitting with a rather weak hand, moreover consisting of cards he has dealt to himself.
But if the price of oil continues to rise, the pressure will increase dramatically on Trump to withdraw from the war as soon as possible, at any cost, including concessions to Iran, which can continue to use its control of the Strait of Hormuz to gain advantages.
What follows could be bad for many.
The alternative, to escalate the bombing even further and perhaps deploy ground troops, also involves great risks.
Trump has declared that he will stop fighting only when he “ feels it in his bones”.
How high must the price of oil rise for the right feeling to appear?
On Tuesday morning, oil cost around $104 per barrel.
When it rose to $120 per barrel for a short period last week, the first signs of panic were visible in the White House. At the same time, experts have warned of prices of $150 or even $200 if the situation does not improve.
Trump’s pain threshold is probably not very far away.
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