Philippine Drug War

Analysis: Arrest Extremely Timely for ICC – and for Duterte's Rival

The timing of the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte for crimes against humanity is extremely timely, both for the International Criminal Court (ICC) and for his political opponents. Several analysts write.

The ICC has only managed to convict six criminals in two decades. The most wanted men, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, are at large, and the chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, is the subject of a UN investigation into alleged sex crimes.

"The arrest of Duterte could boost the court's credibility," Stephanie van den Berg writes in an analysis for Reuters.

Several analysts point out that the arrest also comes just as the election campaign begins for the Philippine midterm elections in May.

Duterte is running for mayor of the family's strongest stronghold, the city of Davao. But with his popularity, he is also drawing votes for the Senate, which could cause the majority to shift. Daughter Sara Duterte needs family support to remain as vice president under Ferdinand Marcos.

“Their political marriage of convenience has exploded into a bitter dispute,” writes Rebecca Ratcliffe in The Guardian.

After earlier vows not to obey the ICC, Marcos immediately arrested his predecessor when an arrest warrant was issued by Interpol. Anna Holligan writes in the BBC:

“When the political winds turn, those once unreachable can suddenly reach The Hague.”