Expert on the Brazilian election: "Everything is at stake"
As Brazil heads to the polls, left-wing President Lula da Silva, 80, faces off against right-wing populist Flávio Bolsonaro, 45.
And looming in the background is Donald Trump.
"Everything is at stake," says Latin America expert Edme Dominguez.
Tomorrow, a divided Brazil will head to the polls to decide who will lead the country for the coming years.
On one side stands the incumbent president—in office since 2022—the leftist Lula da Silva. On the other stands the right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro—son of Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula da Silva defeated previously.
"Brazil is deeply, deeply divided. Two major blocs are confronting each other," says Edme Dominguez, Associate Professor of Peace and Development Research specializing in Latin American studies at the University of Gothenburg.
"Everything is at stake. In the past, Latin America had many left-leaning governments; now the situation is the exact opposite, because Trump has supported right-wing candidates in all sorts of ways," she continues.
Opinion polls show Lula leading with approximately 45 percent of the vote against Bolsonaro’s 40 percent. If no candidate secures 50 percent, a runoff election will be held, where other right-wing candidates from the first round are expected to back Bolsonaro.
Long-standing conflict and prison sentence
After Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, Bolsonaro refused to accept the election results. An attempted coup d'état took place on January 8, 2023, and Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 for his role in it. Consequently, he is barred from running in the election this time around. His son, Flávio Bolsonaro, is therefore the one running for office.
And Edme Dominguez does not rule out a situation similar to the one following the 2022 election.
"If Lula wins, such a situation could arise again. If Bolsonaro wins, I don't think the Left will question the result in the same way."
US interests
Another factor is the United States.
Donald Trump has openly supported Jair Bolsonaro in the past, and Edme Dominguez believes the US president has a keen interest in developments in the country.
"The US has always been involved in Latin America. But now that involvement is even greater," says Edme Dominguez, referring, among other things, to the so-called "Monroe Doctrine."
Furthermore, Trump wants to curb China's global influence—and Brazil is heavily dependent on its trade with China, she notes.
"Brazil possesses rare earth metals—the kind needed for modern technology. Today, China holds the most expertise in developing them. But what the US wants is to control these minerals. I am certain they will control them if Bolsonaro wins."
You think he will sell the rights to the US?
"Yes, to American companies—absolutely."
Facts
Twelve presidential candidates
In addition to Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), there are ten other candidates. Clariana Barão (DC)
Edmilson Costa (PCB)
Augusto Cury (Avante)
Hertz Slides (PSTU)
Renan Santos (Missão)
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)
Samara (UP)
Wilson Grassi (Democrat)
Zema (Novo)
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