The Nobel Prize

Metamaterials or GLP-1? Here are the experts' Nobel predictions

Nobel Week kicks off on Monday. Who will receive this year's prizes is, as always, a closely guarded secret—but speculation is in full swing within the scientific community.

Several researchers consulted by *The Scientist* believe the prize in medicine could go to the research behind GLP-1 drugs, which are used to treat diabetes and obesity. Other potential candidates are also being mentioned.

Regarding the chemistry prize, another field frequently appears in speculation: next-generation DNA sequencing. In an expert panel organized by *Chemical & Engineering News*, several researchers predict that Shankar Balasubramanian and David Klenerman will be rewarded for this technology.

In the field of physics, Hamish Johnston of *Physics World* believes it might be time to recognize condensed matter physics. Among potential winners, he cites John Pendry and Federico Capasso for their research into so-called metamaterials.

However, anyone thinking of betting money on the experts' tips might want to be cautious. Many of the names appear year after year without ever receiving a call from the Nobel Committee. *Physics World* notes that the publication tipped quantum physicist Anton Zeilinger five times between 2009 and 2019. He finally received the Nobel Prize—in 2022.

Expert: No prize for Trump this year either—but he can still exert influence

Donald Trump’s campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize has been notably absent this year. Experts also believe that any chance of the US president being awarded the prize is completely ruled out following the war with Iran, Reuters reports.

However, the jury may need to consider the controversies surrounding Trump last year.

"There is always a great deal of lobbying and, ultimately, perhaps even attempts to pressure the committee," says Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Nobel committee, in an interview with AFP.

Last year's peace prize went to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado. After the award ceremony, Machado gave her Nobel medal to Donald Trump, a move that was met with considerable skepticism.

According to Haakon Gjerløw at the peace research institute PRIO, that incident might make the committee more cautious. Among other things, they may weigh the risk of this year's laureate facing pressure from Trump and consider whether awarding the prize could ultimately do more harm than good.

"After last year's prize, they might want a less controversial situation this year," he says.