Iran's warning shot shows how things can get worse
Niclas Vent
Reporter
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Updated 17.53 | Published 17.25
There are no signs that either side is backing down.
On the contrary, both the US and Iran seem prepared to escalate.
Iran's latest warning shot shows how an already terrible war can still get much worse.
On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on the island of Qeshm:
"Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous step with serious consequences. The US has set this precedent, not Iran," he wrote.
This morning the answer came.
Iran struck a desalination plant in Bahrain.
It was a clear warning shot.
The desalination plants that produce fresh water from seawater are scattered throughout the Middle East and have so far been left untouched by the war.
There are good reasons for this.
Not only are they clearly civilian targets – they are also absolutely essential for survival in regions where fresh water is otherwise lacking.
In Kuwait, 90 percent of drinking water is desalinated seawater , in Oman 86 percent and in Saudi Arabia 70 percent.
In 2008, a diplomatic report warned that the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh would have to be evacuated within a week if the only desalination plant that then supplied the city with water was damaged.
Saudi Arabia is probably less vulnerable now, but small states such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are said to have small strategic reserves.
Iran also desalinates seawater, but is less dependent than many Gulf states.
Iran therefore has an asymmetric advantage. A mutual bombing of water supplies would probably hurt US allies in the region more than Iran.
The Gulf states are not defenseless, and it is unclear what damage Iran is still capable of inflicting.
However, it does not take an exaggerated imagination to see that a war over drinking water could have catastrophic consequences.
Iran's only attack so far should be seen as a signal, a barely veiled threat, that it might consider starting one.
But the signal must be seen in its context.
A little over a week into the war, neither side seems willing to give up – and both sides are looking for new ways to force the other to back down.
Israel's attacks on fuel depots near Tehran on Saturday are such an escalation. They threaten Iran's ability to wage war, but also make life difficult for civilians inside the country.
Iran, for its part, finds it difficult to harm the United States directly, but has correctly identified the Gulf countries as the United States' weak point.
By making life as miserable for them as possible, Iran hopes that they will begin to pressure the United States to end the war.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy prices on the world market and the rapidly dwindling US stockpiles of critical ammunition also seem to work in Iran's favor.
The Iranian regime is accustomed to putting its own power before the well-being of its people. It can accept a lot of suffering, if necessary, to survive. Its pain points are not as obvious from the outside as those of the United States, but there is no doubt that they exist.
What we are facing now is not so much a war as a competition in enduring suffering.
A suffering that unfortunately looks like it will have to get worse for both parties before either of them gives up.
Who will last the longest remains to be seen.
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