Middle East Crisis Reactions

Polymarket Deletes Several “Death Bets” Following Criticism

The forecasting or betting site Polymarket has deleted several questions where users previously had the opportunity to bet money on the outcome.

Several of the questions are “death bets” – that is, questions about the probability of various people dying, that a nuclear bomb will fall or that the American-Canadian space program Artemis II will explode during its mission.

Ahead of the US and Israeli attack on Iran, users bet a total of over $194 million on Polymarket’s various sites on the date when Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be deposed in one way or another.

The rival site Kalshi stopped paying out to users who had bet correctly on Khamenei’s death, something that has drawn sharp criticism from dissatisfied players.

CEO Tarek Mansour explained the matter by saying that Kalshi does not offer “death markets”.

Anger after suspicious bets: “Making coins of state secrets”

In the wake of the latest US crackdowns on both Venezuela and Iran, a few players on betting sites – or “forecasting sites” – such as Polymarket and Kalshi have managed to hit the jackpot and make big profits with small bets.

The betting has angered Democratic Senator Chris Murphy. In a post on X, he questions how betting can even be legal:

“So there were potentially people in the White House “situation room” last week who were driving the US into war because they had secretly placed bets and wanted the bets to pay off.”

He is supported by Amanda Fischer, a former official at the SEC.

– The floodgates are open. The market itself is quite new and Kalshi is rolling out new products every day, she notes in a comment to the news site Quartz.

Blockchain analysts have seen similarities to insider trading for the six specific accounts that collectively made $1.2 million on suspiciously well-placed bets surrounding the US attack on Iran, shortly before it took place.

The White House has denied the allegations of insider trading.