Middle East Crisis

Peace Talks
Analysis: Long time for Trump is a moment for Iran

Iran and the US are heading for escalation rather than peace. That is the conclusion several analysts draw the day after Trump's deadline to Iran expired.

- Neither party really wants to resume this war, but there is no way out right now, says SR's international correspondent Daniel Alling in his analysis.

Mark Kimmett says in Al Jazeera that the negotiations risk ending in a frozen conflict because no one is prepared to budge an inch from their goals, just like Ukraine and Russia.

Both CNN's Brad Lendon and ISW's unsigned analysis warn that the conflict is also broadening geographically. Iranian-backed groups are participating in attacks on Israeli and American targets in several countries, and the US's boarding of an oil tanker in the Indian Ocean shows that the US is serious about the threat to stop all shipping linked to Iran.

Trump grossly misjudges Iran time and again, says Samir Abu Eid in his analysis on SVT. The killed rulers have been quickly replaced – because the regime is based on ideology, not on people. And when Trump gives Iran a five-day deadline, he does not understand his opponent's perception of time, says Samir Abu Eid:

–For Trump, it's a long time, for the regime, it's a moment.

Strait of Hormuz
20,000 crew members stuck on ships in the Strait of Hormuz for weeks: "We are mentally exhausted"

More than 20,000 crew members have been stuck on ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the US attacked Iran on February 28. This is what Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization IMO, told Sky News.

One of them is the Indian captain Raman Kapoor.

– When the war started, we were in the middle of the conflict zone. We saw hundreds of missiles flying over our heads and we heard and felt the explosions, he tells Sky News.

He says that everyone in his crew is stressed and worried.

– The uncertainty is the worst. We are mentally exhausted. Yesterday we were replenished with provisions and water, for which we are very grateful to the shipping company, he tells Indian CNN 18.

Everyone in the crew is longing for home, he says, and many contracts that have expired a long time ago.

– The shipping company says they are working on it, so hopefully we will be on our way home soon.

Economic effects
Coordination and more electricity will be the EU's response to the energy crisis

Better coordination, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, increased electrification and temporary support for the most vulnerable households. These are the main features of the EU's plan to meet the fuel crisis that the war in Iran has given rise to, reports TT.

The plan was presented on Wednesday by Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen. He stressed that Europe must coordinate internally so that EU countries do not compete with each other when it comes to, for example, replenishing gas and fuel stocks.

“We must act quickly and together,” he says.

He warned that the coming months will continue to be very uncertain.

“Even in a best-case scenario, the situation on the energy market will be bad,” says Jørgensen. 

Reactions
Analysis: With the extension, Trump is fishing for flexibility

Donald Trump announced on Tuesday evening that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran. However, the US will continue to block Iranian ports.

In an analysis for the BBC, White House reporter Bernd Debusmann Jr points out that Trump has not set a time limit this time, which theoretically gives him more flexibility.

But Trump's continued blockade will likely be an obstacle during future negotiations, as Iran sees it as an act of war, Debusmann writes.

Washington correspondent Daniel Bush writes that Trump has "decided to buy himself more time" with his post.

"It is the second time in two weeks that Trump has backed down from threats to escalate the war - a sign that he seems increasingly interested in deescalating the conflict," he writes for the BBC.

Sveriges Radio's US correspondent Ginna Lindberg agrees.

- His tactic has always been to keep all doors open, and he has done so in recent days. Now he is extending the ceasefire and in this way he is giving more time for possible negotiations.