Iran has the Strait of Hormuz.
The US has the naval blockade.
– Both have a stranglehold on each other. Now it’s a question of who gives in first, says Mohammad Fazlhashemi, a professor of Islamic theology.
Quick version
Iran and the US are in a tense power struggle in which Iran uses the Strait of Hormuz and the US a naval blockade as strategic trump cards. There is great uncertainty about whether and how the parties will meet for negotiations, which is complicated by the poor trust between them. “Both have a stranglehold on each other. Now it’s a question of who gives in first,” says Mohammad Fazlhashemi, a professor of Islamic theology.
It is uncertain at the last moment whether the parties will meet in the mediating country Pakistan.
And how the talks will go if so.
– It is possible to find compromises, but the parties have terribly low trust in each other, says Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus of political science at the Swedish National Defense University.
US President Donald Trump has threatened with massive bombings if Iran does not do as the US wants.
Iran, for its part, has warned that it has new aces up its sleeve if war breaks out again.
About survival
– Iran is well aware that they can never match the armies of the United States or Israel. This was admitted by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who leads the negotiating delegation, to the Iranian parliament this week. But he also said that “we made sure that their plans for regime change were thwarted”. For Iran, it is about surviving, and thus winning.
One of Iran's strongest cards is the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed and thereby paralysed the world economy. It also affects public opinion for Donald Trump, both among voters in the United States and abroad.
On the other hand, the United States has its recently imposed naval blockade of Iranian ports, which is seriously affecting the Iranian economy.
FACTS
Unclear when the ceasefire will end
Unclear when the ceasefire will endOn April 7, the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire after the more than month-long war, in which Israel has also fought on the US side and Iran has attacked several neighboring countries.
The ceasefire came into effect during the night between April 7 and 8. Various end times have been circulating regarding when it will now end. On April 21 at 8 p.m. American East Coast time, i.e. at 2 a.m. on April 22 Swedish time, is the most common time.
Donald Trump later told Bloomberg that the ceasefire would end “on Wednesday evening Washington time”, which would mean a day later than initially stated. In the same conversation, he also said that it was “highly unlikely” that the ceasefire would be extended.
Industries have been hit
Should the economy continue to be negatively affected for a longer period of time in Iran, Mohammad Fazlhashemi sees that the regime could actually be affected, provided that the people's dissatisfaction increases.
- It will be a chicken race, we will see who gives in first, he states.
- The central issue is the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's continued enrichment of uranium and what should happen to the uranium that has already been enriched.
He is at least certain of one thing: Trump's tactics of threatening Iran will not work.
- He is on the hook here. It is terribly difficult to deal with this regime. Bombing does not solve all problems.
FACTS
Important points in the negotiations
The US's strong card is that it can continue its naval blockade of Iranian ports, which constitutes powerful economic pressure. President Donald Trump has also threatened extensive attacks on Iranian power plants and infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the ceasefire agreement. Another trump card that the US has is that it can release frozen Iranian assets, which are several billion dollars in various banks, for example in exchange for the 440 kilograms of already enriched uranium that are in Iran. It can also gradually ease the economic sanctions imposed on Iran after the previous nuclear agreement was dissolved in 2018. Iran's strong card is spelled the Strait of Hormuz, that it has control over the waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil is exported. The blockade there has plunged the world into a global chaos of high energy prices and inflationary risks. Uranium enrichment is another key negotiating point that Iran can use. By agreeing to a so-called moratorium on uranium enrichment for a number of years, Iran can gain access to the previously mentioned frozen assets and also receive relief from sanctions. Iran is also well aware that US President Donald Trump wants to end the war. This is unpopular with his voters and is driving up prices worldwide. Trump has also been elected on the principle of not starting new wars, and even if he were open to sending ground troops into the war, it would lead to an outcry among Americans.
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