Middle East Crisis Iran War

Analysis: Trump grossly misjudged Iran's retaliation

The biggest misjudgement that Donald Trump has made in the war against Iran is to underestimate the country's retaliation, writes Reuters in an analytical text.

Above all, Iran has managed to hit the US and the rest of the world hard by closing the important Strait of Hormuz. The American president now faces a tough choice.

"Either he signs a flawed agreement and withdraws, or he escalates militarily and risks a protracted conflict that could characterize his presidency," writes the news agency.

The Guardian's Patrick Wintour is on the same track. He writes that Trump has weakened the US's negotiating position through his attacks on Iran.

"The war has not only failed to get Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear program [...] The US is now also forced to negotiate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."

CNN's Nick Paton Walsh writes that Trump has fallen into the same trap as many presidents before him:

"The illusion that a quick military operation can lead to lasting political change."

The United States will probably not achieve its most important goals in Iran, he says. For example, Trump cannot guarantee that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons; he can only impair the country's ability to do so.

American and Israeli weapons stockpiles seem to be doing their job: "Not like an iPhone factory"

The United States and Israel have already used a large part of their missiles in the war against Iran, according to a report from the British think tank Rusi. These include both missiles used to attack Iran and to protect Israel and allies in the region from Iranian attacks.

80 percent of Israel's Arrow missiles are believed to have already been used and nearly half of the American Thaad missiles have been deployed. The stocks of missiles used for offensive purposes are more well-stocked, according to the report.

Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the country has responded by firing over 400 ballistic missiles, according to the Israeli military.

Each Arrow missile costs millions of kronor, but the difficulties in producing new ammunition are as much about production capabilities as they are about money, according to US Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek.

“This is about production chains that you can’t just speed up like an iPhone factory,” he tells AFP.

Israel: Rocket fired from Yemen for the first time

The Israeli military, IDF, states that a rocket from Yemen has been fired at the country for the first time since the war began. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far stayed out of the war, partly due to a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia.

The AP news agency reports that air raid sirens sounded in several Israeli areas during the night. Iran also continues its retaliatory attacks against Israel.

The attacks come a day after Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and threatened to “escalate” the war.