Sanctions will not bring down the regime
Johan Mathias Sommarström
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Published 2026-01-29 17.14
With tougher sanctions and the terror label, the EU wants to make a mark against Iran.
But for a regime that kills its own and allows double standards to have a face, sanctions are an unreliable tool.
The streets of Iranian cities have been washed clean of blood.
When the internet works again, it is like being awakened from a sleep. Shocked Iranians realize with surprise how brutal the past month has been. How many have been killed and how they were killed.
Ruthlessly on the streets, in hospitals and in prisons.
US President Donald Trump is still talking about attacking Iran, threatening with the armada that has been moved to the region. Iran counters by saying that they have their finger on the trigger, that they have filled their stocks with ballistic missiles and that their response will be painful.
The raw brutality of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has prompted the EU to tighten sanctions and label the organization a terrorist organization.
It is an important signal but in many ways also a blow in the air. For which the hard-pressed Iranians may once again have to pay the price.
The crashed currency and the ever-rising prices of basic goods are the result of many years of sanctions. Of a system that is dependent on smuggling and currency exchange on the black market, at lousy rates.
Where the winners are the smugglers and the biggest smugglers are the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC.
The Revolutionary Guard has its tentacles in every part of Iran's economy, from infrastructure to energy, agriculture, arms exports and a large presence on the black market.
Iranian hawks, that is, unreasonable religious leaders, high-ranking politicians and military commanders, have long been on the sanctions lists of many countries.
They warn the people against being seduced by the temptations of the West. They punish women who do not cover their hair.
At the same time, they send their own children to exclusive universities abroad, preferably in the United States or Germany. One of the most hawkish hawks, Ali Larijani, is accused of being the architect behind the massacres of protesters. He has spent years explaining the danger of American influence. At the same time, he sent his daughter to the United States, where she worked at a university until recently.
Past presidents, high-ranking Revolutionary Guards, and religious leaders have long sent children to the West, where they have been able to enjoy the freedoms denied to the people of Iran.
With sanctions such as further asset freezes and the criminalization of membership in the Revolutionary Guard, it may become more difficult to send children to freedom abroad.
More difficult, but not impossible.
The high-ups always find ways to circumvent sanctions.
At the same time, tougher sanctions and terror labeling can also have the opposite effect.
It could strengthen the Revolutionary Guard’s influence over smuggling everything from oil to alcohol (as strange as it may sound) and Western-produced goods.
It could complicate the discussions with the regime that need to be held. France, for example, has been concerned about the safety of French citizens in Iranian prisons and that terror labeling would make their lives more difficult.
Both terror labeling of the Revolutionary Guard and tougher sanctions may be blunt tools, but they are what is available.
And it's sharper than empty statements or just calling up a bunch of ambassadors.
It's called putting your foot down, albeit cautiously.
