The Russian plan to take advantage of the situation - this is how Putin acts
John Edgar
Published 00.23
Quick version
After Donald Trump's great victory, Russian sources within the Kremlin
hope to be able to use the situation to gain advantages in the conflict
in Ukraine and Europe.
Russia is preparing by advancing in Ukraine, hoping that Trump's return
will enable negotiations, as it believes that Kiev will be forced to
accept negotiations.
Inside the Kremlin, they closely follow how the US Congress can be
affected by party political shifts and how Trump shapes his
administration, especially with interest in key positions in security
and foreign policy.
The plan is put into action after Donald Trump's big victory.
Sources within Putin's regime now reveal how they want to exploit the situation and force a settlement.
Two things are scrutinized extra carefully in the Kremlin.
On at least seven occasions since Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, the former president spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin, Bob Woodward stated in his new book "War."
At the same time, the situation has been icy between Putin and President Biden since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.
Secret congratulations
However, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not want to confirm on Wednesday that the president would pick up the phone and call Trump after the night's big victory.
- I still don't know anything about whether Putin will congratulate, he said during a press conference in Moscow according to the russian new agency Tass.
- I just want to remind you that we are talking about an election that took place in a country with which we do not have friendly relations and which is involved in the conflict in Ukraine. Putin and Trump at a 2019 summit.
Putin and Trump at a summit in 2019. Photo: Susan Walsh / AP
According to the Russian newspaper Verstka, however, the Russian president secretly conveyed his congratulations "through acquaintances", writes Newsweek.
Other Russian dignitaries such as Foreign Minister Lavrov are said to have wished the new president well.
The plan for Trump's return
And optimism is high in Russian political circles according to the high-ranking sources within the Kremlin, the Russian government and the foreign ministry that the newspaper Vpost spoke to, writes The Moscow Times.
It is believed that Trump's victory could give Russia a decisive push forward - and plans for how to handle the war for the next two or so months until Trump returns to Washington.
- We will continue to advance in Ukraine until the installation, says a government source to the newspaper.
- It would be good to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk in January and then we can decide what to do with Kherson.
On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump will be installed as the 47th president of the United States at a ceremony in Washington.
Devastation after a Russian attack on Kharkiv last week. Photo: Andrii Marienko / AP
"Forced to face reality"
Another high-ranking government source states that it would be "simple and logical" for the new president to propose negotiations on whether Russian forces can push further into Ukraine in late autumn and over the New Year.
It is also believed that it will make Kiev accept negotiations with Russia.
- As soon as Trump takes office and forms his team, we can agree to start consultations. It will be convenient for him to negotiate, the source told Vpost.
- Ukraine will be forced to face reality with the help of the United States.
Donald Trump has repeatedly said Russia would never have invaded Ukraine if he were still president - and claimed he can resolve the conflict in 24 hours.
- Trump probably wants to promote this, at least if he gets to be at the center of the whole process and then can get his Nobel Peace Prize or prove important in some other way, says a source to Vpost.
Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense/AP
Looking at two things
- His self-interest has always been great and always will be.
Within the Kremlin, two things are now being followed with great interest.
A parameter of importance to Moscow is the vote count for the House of Representatives, which will determine whether both houses of Congress end up under Republican control. It is already clear that the party will get a majority in the Senate.
- There will not be a divided government with both chambers possibly in the hands of the Republicans and no fear of sabotage from the Democrats, says a Russian government source.
They are also closely watching from the Russian side how Trump shapes his administration.
Future Vice President JD Vance and Donald Trump. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP
Tributes to Vance
A Kremlin source says that they are particularly interested in who he will be appointed to the positions of national security adviser, foreign minister, defense minister, defense chief and CIA chief.
All of these have a major impact on how US foreign policy will look in the next four years.
A Russian government source says he has great confidence in Trump's Vice President JD Vance.
- If he becomes vice president and participates in creating the team, at least some of the people involved will be rational, he tells Vpost.
Sources: Biden wants to send $6 billion to Ukraine before Trump takes over
The
Biden administration plans to send the six billion dollars in aid to
Ukraine that has already been decided before Donald Trump takes office.
Administration sources told Politico.
It usually takes months to
prepare deliveries, and the White House would then have to work much
faster than it has done in the past.
One of the problems is that
the US does not have stocks of equipment ready to send, says Mark
Cancian at the think tank Center for Strategic and International
Studies, who previously worked on the budget within the Department of
Defense
- The administration can, of course, remove our own
stocks and send equipment faster, but it is unclear if the Pentagon
would like that, because it would affect our own readiness.
Trump has previously said he plans to end aid to Ukraine if he becomes president.
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Kamala Harris: "Accepting the loss - that's what separates democracy from tyranny"
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris opened her address to the nation on Wednesday by thanking the voter for their trust and praising election workers for their efforts during the election campaign.
- My heart is full today. Full of gratitude for the trust I received, and full of love for our country, says Harris.
Before the speech, Harris called Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory. In her speech, she promises to work for a peaceful transition of power and help the newly elected president and his team with the installation.
- When we lose an election, we accept the result. That distinguishes democracy from tyranny, she says.
The vice president rounded off his speech by urging his supporters to keep up the commitment and not lose heart.
- During the campaign I used to say 'when we fight, we win'. But this is how it is. Sometimes the fight takes longer. That doesn't mean we won't win.
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Bernie Sanders: Workers are abandoning the Democrats
Kamala Harris and the Democratic leadership receive harsh criticism from leftist Senator Bernie Sanders after the election loss.
In a statement that he has shared on X, Sanders writes that "it should be no great surprise for a party that has abandoned the working class, that the working class also abandons the party."
At the same time, the left faces harsh criticism from Democrats who say they undermined the Harris campaign.
- Donald Trump has no better friend than the extreme left, which has historically alienated many Latinos, blacks, Asians and Jews with absurdities such as "Defund the police" or "From the river to the sea", says the member of the House of Representatives Ritchie Torres to the Wall Street Journal.
............................. McDonald's move praised: "The smartest thing I've seen"
Donald Trump paved the way for a return to the White House by posting pictures of his grandchildren, doing interviews with unknown podcasts and partially ignoring his advisers. This is written by the Washington Post, which, through interviews with people in both parties, describes the very eventful election campaign.
Trump's former campaign manager, Brad Parscale, believes that Trump sometimes found it difficult to generate enthusiasm around his election meetings, but that during the course of the election campaign he managed to present himself as a "normal guy you like".
Parscale singles out one move in particular at the end of the campaign, in which Trump served French fries.
- McDonalds was the smartest thing I've seen him do.
In August, Trump is said to have been asked to shorten his speeches, focus on the economy and stick to the script. But the advice was ignored.
- But people want a show, was the answer from Trump.
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Trump's climate policy will be "drill, baby, drill"
With
Donald Trump as president, many of the United States' most important
climate measures are being put at risk, according to several experts the
AP has spoken to.
Trump has summed up his climate and energy
policy with the words "drill, baby, drill" and promised to increase the
extraction of oil, natural gas and coal. In addition, he wants to stop
the subsidies for wind power that are included in President Joe Biden's
comprehensive climate package from 2022.
The US has succeeded in
reducing carbon dioxide emissions mainly by replacing coal-fired power
plants with renewables, according to Stanford University climate
scientist Rob Jackson
- It's not just about the climate. It is about our lives and our health, he says.
Former
UN climate director Christiana Figueres points out that it will be
difficult to convince companies to slow down green investments and
ventures because green technology has already made fossil fuels lose
their competitiveness.
- Investing in oil and gas means falling behind in a fast-moving world, she tells Politico.
Not only are the tariffs now expected to be significantly higher than the 7.5-25 percent that were imposed on China during Trump's first term, the country's economy is in a clearly worse situation than last time. That's what Reuters writes after a review of China's economy.
The country's real estate crisis and the mountain of debt that has emerged as a consequence are two of the factors listed. Other problems are low wages and weak domestic demand. Reuters notes that China has indeed had export success in electric vehicles and solar energy, but that the country "depends on external demand". ..............................
Europe's stock market rally came off: "Lower upside with Trump"
The morning's gains of almost 2 percent among several of Europe's stock exchanges were completely erased at the close. Reuters writes that concerns about Trump's tariffs ruined the stock market party on the continent.
"We see lower upside for European stocks under Trump," UBS equity strategists wrote in a market letter.
Going forward, the strategists foresee three main areas for Europe's markets: Potential trade restrictions, the scaling back of green initiatives and possible consequences for EU spending in Ukraine.
During the day, the European stock markets turned down towards zero, while Wall Street rushed towards new record levels.
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Analysis: Europe is not ready for the Maga storm
Trump's return to the White House occurs when Europe is politically and economically vulnerable, writes Reuters' Pierre Briancon.
Now the continent's leaders are hoping that the new president will not face all the threats of tariffs and stop military support, he says.
"If Trump does, Europe's ability to deal with the shock will be hampered by growing internal divisions."
A Republican administration risks more "America first" policies. This is written by Bloomberg's Lionel Laurent, who states that several European leaders congratulated Trump on his victory.
"Despite all attempts to soften the relationship with Trump, the fact remains that Europe stands helpless in the face of the coming geopolitical storm," writes Laurent in the text with the headline "Trump's European allies are defenseless against Maga".
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Swedish inflation is expected to have risen in October
Inflation in Sweden is expected to have risen to 1.3 percent in October, up from 1.1 percent in September. This is evident from Infront's survey ahead of Thursday's Statistics Sweden figures.
"The risks to our October forecast for inflation are balanced. The rapid KPI will be published just hours before the Riksbank's announcement and they will not have it available at their meeting," writes Nordea, which predicts that CPIF inflation will land at 1.3 percent.
Electricity prices increased in October after being at unusually low levels in previous months, writes Direkt. The new electricity transmission system has so far not caused any major price increases, and electricity futures are at seasonally normal levels.
Gasoline prices also rose during the period but have recently started to fall back.
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Wallenberg: "Cooperation with the USA is fundamental"
Swedish business profiles that DI spoke to after the US election emphasize the concern about increased protectionism.
Investor's chairman Jacob Wallenberg emphasizes that "the transatlantic link is fundamental for Sweden".
"Swedish industry is one of the largest investors in the US, with extensive production and development in the US," he writes in a comment to the newspaper.
Cevian founder Christer Gardell warns that Trump's policies could drive up inflation, and Social Democrats party leader Magdalena Andersson emphasizes the importance of continued cooperation for stability and trade.
The Middle East crisis The reactions Large protests in Israel - sprayed "skunk water"
Protests have erupted in Israel following yesterday's announcement that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is firing Defense Minister Yaov Gallant, reports Haaretz.
Several thousand people have gathered in Tel Aviv and outside Netanyahu's home in Jerusalem. People have set fire to car tires on the Ayalon highway and blocked traffic. At least 40 people have been arrested by police - who used water cannons to disperse protesters. For the first time, the police used "skunk" water cannons with smelly water, Haaretz reporter writes.
Netanyahu says a crisis of confidence is behind the decision, while Gallant says it is due to disagreements on key issues, such as Gallant believing it is possible to bring back the hostages from Gaza - as long as Israel is willing to make "painful compromises" .
The Middle East Crisis Israel-Hezbollah Hezbollah: The war will be decided on the battlefield
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem does not believe that political action will mean an end to the war between the Shia militia and Israel. In a speech on Wednesday, he said it will be decided on the battlefield.
- Our belief is that only one thing can stop this war of aggression, and that is the battlefield, says Qassem according to Reuters.
He also underlined that the only way to negotiations is if Israel stops attacking Lebanon.
Israel states that its attacks are aimed at allowing Israelis who were forced to leave the northern parts of the country to return home.
Right now: Risk of new elections in Germany at the end of March - cooperation has collapsed
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirms that he has fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is party leader of the liberal governing party FPD.
- He has broken my trust too many times, says Scholz at a press conference, where he generally goes hard for Lindner:
- I no longer want to subject our country to this type of behaviour, he continues.
Furthermore, Scholz announces that he has decided on a vote of confidence in the government on January 15. If the government falls in the vote, it could pave the way for new elections in Germany at the end of March.
Germany's three ruling parties – the "yellow" liberal party FDP, the Greens and the social democratic SPD (red) – have long had difficulty agreeing on fiscal policy.
Government crisis in Germany - the finance minister is fired
German
Finance Minister Christian Lindner has been fired by Chancellor Olaf
Scholz. The announcement marks the start of a German government crisis,
writes Der Spiegel.
The three parties - the yellow FDP of which
Lindner is party leader, the Greens and the social democratic SPD - have
long quarreled over how the money should be distributed. During a
crisis meeting earlier tonight, Lindner proposed new elections in
January 2025, sources told Bild and Der Spiegel. But the proposal is
said to have been flatly rejected by Olaf Scholz.
Lindner must
have considered that there is a lack of sufficient common ground to
continue governing the country together. According to the data, he
argued that it is of extra interest to build a stable and efficient
government after Donald Trump's election win.
At a press
conference, Scholz announces that a vote of confidence will be held for
the German government on January 15. If the government falls, it could
mean new elections at the end of March.
Analysis: Has happened three times before - was a new election each time
The traffic light is broken. This is written by several German media after the traffic light coalition that has governed Germany has collapsed as a result of a protracted budget dispute.
Financial newspaper Handelsblatt's commentator Thomas Sigmund thinks it was absolutely right for Finance Minister Christian Lindner to sit in the crosshairs, which led to him being fired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Germany is in recession for the second year in a row, he notes.
"One would almost like to say: Respect, Mr. Lindner! Risking your position to stay true to yourself doesn't happen often in politics.”
Scholz is also praised for his actions.
"This coalition did not fail because of a few billions in the budget. Lindner had long since moved on to the election campaign and only acted on the basis of party tactics," writes Kersten Augustins in an analysis in Die Tageszeitung.
Scholz's response was to poke Lindner and promise a vote of confidence in the government in January. In the country's history, three other leaders have done the same - and on all occasions it ended with new elections, writes Deutsche Welle.
