China
China's attack increases the risk of war against the United States
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 2024-06-19 21.38
China is behaving increasingly aggressively in the South China Sea.
The attack on Philippine military vessels is just the latest incident.
The US has pledged to defend the Philippines in the event of an attack.
This increases the risk in the long run of a military confrontation between China and the United States.
Quick version
With the US preoccupied with Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza, China is testing the limits of how far it can go without US interference.
While the eyes of the world are directed towards the Middle East and Ukraine, there are more and more worrying signals about China'sChina's behavior in the South China Sea.
China is in a long-term but so far mostly low-intensity conflict with, among others, the Fhilippines over the right to the South China Sea.
A focal point is the Thomas Shoal reef where the Philippines grounded a military ship to mark its territorial claims. In the Sierra Madre there are a number of military personnel who must be maintained with food, water and other supplies. Something China is constantly trying to make difficult and prevent.
In recent years, China has greatly upgraded its coast guard to vessels that more closely resemble military vessels with heavy weapons.
In a confrontation yesterday, China boarded two Philippine military rubber boats that were on their way with supplies to the Sierra Madre. They attacked the boats with machetes and knives and emptied them of their contents. In the operation, a number of Filipino sailors were injured.
A spokesman for the country's ÖB accused China of behaving like pirates.
The attack represents a further escalation compared to the incidents that occurred earlier in the year. In them, China has attacked Philippine ships with water cannons as they approached the area, ramming one of them.
Filipino fishermen no longer dare to fish in the waters around the reef despite having traditionally done so for decades and being within the Philippines' economic zone. The threats from China have become all too apparent.
While the eyes of the world are directed towards the Middle East and Ukraine, there are more and more worrying signals about China'sChina's behavior in the South China Sea.
China is in a long-term but so far mostly low-intensity conflict with, among others, the Fhilippines over the right to the South China Sea.
A focal point is the Thomas Shoal reef where the Philippines grounded a military ship to mark its territorial claims. In the Sierra Madre there are a number of military personnel who must be maintained with food, water and other supplies. Something China is constantly trying to make difficult and prevent.
In recent years, China has greatly upgraded its coast guard to vessels that more closely resemble military vessels with heavy weapons.
In a confrontation yesterday, China boarded two Philippine military rubber boats that were on their way with supplies to the Sierra Madre. They attacked the boats with machetes and knives and emptied them of their contents. In the operation, a number of Filipino sailors were injured.
A spokesman for the country's ÖB accused China of behaving like pirates.
The attack represents a further escalation compared to the incidents that occurred earlier in the year. In them, China has attacked Philippine ships with water cannons as they approached the area, ramming one of them.
Filipino fishermen no longer dare to fish in the waters around the reef despite having traditionally done so for decades and being within the Philippines' economic zone. The threats from China have become all too apparent.
Extra alarming this time is that China's attack comes just days after a new law was passed in which China claims the right to board foreign ships that move into waters that China considers its own.
The law gives China the right to detain foreign crews for 60 days. The new law also refers to a 2021 law that gives China the right to fire on foreign ships if deemed necessary.
The combination of the new law and the attack on the Philippine maintenance boats must be seen as a serious escalation of the conflict over who has rights to the South China Sea.
The controversy becomes extra dangerous because it effectively pits China against the United States in much the same way as the conflict over Taiwan.
The United States has an agreement with the Philippines in which it undertakes to defend the country in the event of war. In recent years, the two countries have started a closer cooperation and earlier this year carried out a large military exercise together at sea.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently told an international conference that if a Filipino sailor is killed in one of the increasingly common confrontations, the Philippines will be very close to seeing it as an act of war.
The US ambassador in Manila condemned the Chinese attack, but it is still unclear whether President Biden will respond in any way.
But the United States has again pointed to its commitment to defend the Philippines.
Unsurprisingly, China gives a very different picture of the latest event. Instead, they accuse the Filipino boats of behaving carelessly and irresponsibly and claim that they are entirely to blame for what happened. Which is what Beijing always says while it is clear that it is China that is trying to hinder the Philippines and not the other way around.
The United States and all countries in the region question China's claim to almost the entire South China Sea. They are backed by a ruling by the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016 that ruled China's claims illegal. China has ignored that decision.
The U.S. Navy periodically sails into waters claimed by China to signal that the U.S. wants to maintain the right to free navigation in an important international trade route at sea.
China usually protests verbally against what it sees as US intrusions, but it usually doesn't come to any physical confrontations.
But with the new law and the attack on the Philippine ships, China escalates the conflict a step further. Maybe to see how the US will react.
As the US is currently very preoccupied with Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza, China may see an opportunity to advance its positions. Test how willing the US really is to defend its allies in the South China Sea, such as the Philippines and Taiwan.
Each new incident could be the spark that starts a larger armed conflict between China and the United States.
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