Risks going to jail if he doesn't become president

The US presidential election
Will Trump accept an election loss?

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 12.06

Quick version

• Democrats' concern that Trump will not accept an election loss remains. His campaign is preparing to challenge the result with an army of lawyers.
• Both sides of the election battle are preparing for legal battles over the election results, especially in even swing states.
• The Trump side has already filed a lawsuit against Georgia before election day because some electoral districts allegedly kept polling places open to receive votes even though the last day for early voting was November 1.

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA. The question every Democratic voter is asking is whether Donald Trump will accept the outcome if he loses the election.

The Harris campaign is confident that Trump will declare victory on election night even though all the results are not clear.

Both sides have an army of lawyers ready to fight in the courts.

In recent days, Trump has intensified the warnings at his election rallies that the opposing side will cheat. He has pointed to things that have occurred in a few different states. At an election meeting I visited, he said that "we revealed that they have cheated in Pennsylvania".

But it was not about cheating, but about the authorities intervening when, in the final stages of the election, they received an unusually large number of newly registered voters and started an investigation to prevent the risk of electoral fraud.

It is clear that Trump is trying to prepare the ground to be able to challenge a possible election loss and claim fraud. Just like he did in the 2020 election.

But this time he hasn't talked as much about cheating at his election meetings.

Until now.

Probably because in this election he is urging his supporters to vote by mail as well as early. Two variants that he condemned in the 2020 election because he believed they opened the door to cheating.

Maybe he also feels more confident of winning this time. In 2020, he was quite significantly behind in opinion polls before the election.

Trump is also in a worse position this time.

In 2020, he was still president a few months after election day. He was able to use the full power of the presidency to order various measures and put pressure on those responsible in the states. Today he is an ex-president without real power.

         
          Donald Trump. Photo: Morry Gash/AP

"enemy within"

In his election speeches, he has spoken a lot about the "enemy within" and in particular singled out the left, which in his eyes includes Kamala Harris - he calls her a communist. He has called the threat from the internal enemy far more dangerous than that from China and Russia.

Trump has suggested that the military should be deployed against the people if they protest the election results. But even if Trump were to win the election, he will not take office until the end of January next year. Until then, he cannot order the military or the National Guard into the streets. Joe Biden is still running the country.

This is not to say that there is no risk of violence depending on the outcome of the election. Many fear riots and unrest regardless of who ultimately emerges victorious. That's how strong the contradictions are in the country.

Both sides have long prepared for a legal battle over the outcome. Not least because the opinion polls show that it will be incredibly even.

Both Trump and Harris have hundreds of lawyers ready in every major state ready to file lawsuits. In fact, the legal battles have already been going on for some time.

In Georgia, Republicans tried to get all votes counted by hand instead of electronically. Something that had delayed the election results by several days. But a court put a stop to those plans in at least this election.

Misinformation

The Trump side has already filed a lawsuit against Georgia before election day because some electoral districts allegedly kept polling places open to receive votes even though the last day for early voting was November 1.

Because the US has a "winner takes all" electoral system, a candidate can take home an important state such as Pennsylvania or Georgia with just a few thousand votes. Small margins invite arguments about electoral fraud. We saw that in the 2020 election when Joe Biden won both Georgia and Arizona by just over 10,000 votes.

Most states have mandatory recount rules if neither candidate won a state by more than a one percent margin. But in most cases, the result usually ends up being about the same.

So in the final sprint, there is a lot of misinformation from groups that want to damage confidence in the electoral process and create chaos. This is particularly the case in the wave master states. Foreign actors such as China and Russia are also involved here.

Most Democratic voters I spoke to have confidence in the electoral process. They don't believe in cheating and trust the results.

The picture is completely different among Trump supporters, where many are skeptical that the election will be conducted correctly. Especially if Trump loses.

Jail awaits

It is precisely this belief that cheating will occur that Trump can exploit to challenge a possible election loss. A belief that he himself has created by constantly questioning the election process.

Before Trump's entry into the political arena in 2015, hardly any discussion of election fraud existed in the United States.

But if it turns out to be as even in this year's election as the polls predict, there is a risk that neither side will immediately be prepared to accept the result.

Trump also has personal reasons for refusing to accept an election loss.

If he wins, he can drop the charges that await him.

If he loses, he risks eventually ending up in prison.
 

Most Democratic voters I spoke to have