The US presidential election
The world holds its breath – four new years of chaos or hope for change?
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 19.50 | Published 17.59
Quick version
- The United States is facing a decisive choice between two clear alternatives: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which could lead to major changes both nationally and internationally.
- Both sides are worried about potential unrest and legal battles if the election results are tied, and the conflicts over how the country should be governed run deep.
- The election has significant international implications, particularly for Ukraine, Taiwan and the Middle East, with different expectations depending on who takes power.
Our world will look very different depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes president. Much is at stake.
Awaiting four new years of chaos under Trump. Or a hope for a change for the better under Harris? Or unrest regardless of who wins?
Rarely have the options in a presidential election been so clear. There are two completely different realities facing each other. In the US as well as in the rest of the world.
Many of the Americans I have spoken to in recent weeks are afraid that violence will break out after election day regardless of who wins the election. So great are the contradictions and the attitude that the opponent intends to cheat.
If it is as even as the opinion polls show, it is likely that neither side will immediately accept the election result.
Both campaigns have an army of lawyers ready to fight in the courts of the swing states where the election is decided.
Both sides are worried about what will happen to the United States if the opponent wins.
With Donald Trump, the United States will become a country that will detain and deport migrants en masse. The ex-president has already declared that he will use the full power of the presidency to hunt down and imprison his opponents.
He has joked that he wants to be a dictator. A joke that the Democrats take very seriously. During the final stages of the election campaign, Kamala Harris singled out Trump as a wannabe dictator and fascist.
Take weapons
Trump supporters see Harris as a dangerous left-wing extremist who will expand the state's grip on citizens, take away their guns, curtail their freedom and seek to restore abortion rights. The last point is in any case correct.
An effective Trump message about the economy and the border has been: “Kamala ruined it. Trump will fix it”.
It is hard to know how it would turn out if Harris gets into power, but in the election campaign she has been the one to extend a hand to the opponents and plead for an end to the polarization. She has promised to invite the opposing side to negotiations. Don't chase them.
One of her best one-liners has been:
"Trump comes to the Oval Office with a list of enemies he wants to destroy. I get there with a list of things that need to be done”.
Both Trump and Harris promise big tax cuts. He for the wealthy. She for the middle class. Tax cuts, especially in Trump's case, will add to the US's already huge budget deficit and thus increase the risk of financial instability in the world.
Trump represents a US that is increasingly turning inward and isolating itself. Protects itself with tariffs against the outside world.
If Kamala Harris wins, the glass ceiling will be broken and the United States will have its first female president.
Donald Trump has promised to end the war in a day. It is nothing more than unrealistic boasting. Much like when he promised in the 2016 campaign that Mexico would pay for a border wall.
The only way to quickly end the war is to force Ukraine to make major concessions. Trump will try to do that by sharply reducing or completely ending military and economic aid to Ukraine. It will have major consequences for Europe and Sweden, who in that case must put their economies on a war footing if they are to be able to compensate for the lack of US support.
Even if Harris wins, Europe cannot be sure that the USA's strong support for Ukraine will continue. But the chance is significantly greater that she will continue Biden's policy.
Self-governing Taiwan also feels great concern. Biden has promised to defend the island in the event of an attack from China. It is not at all certain that Trump will keep that promise.
His campaign message has been to end all wars and not start new ones. But given the way the world looks, the question is whether he can keep that promise without seriously eroding the liberal world order.
An effective Trump message about the economy and the border has been: “Kamala ruined it. Trump will fix it”.
It is hard to know how it would turn out if Harris gets into power, but in the election campaign she has been the one to extend a hand to the opponents and plead for an end to the polarization. She has promised to invite the opposing side to negotiations. Don't chase them.
One of her best one-liners has been:
"Trump comes to the Oval Office with a list of enemies he wants to destroy. I get there with a list of things that need to be done”.
Both Trump and Harris promise big tax cuts. He for the wealthy. She for the middle class. Tax cuts, especially in Trump's case, will add to the US's already huge budget deficit and thus increase the risk of financial instability in the world.
Trump represents a US that is increasingly turning inward and isolating itself. Protects itself with tariffs against the outside world.
If Kamala Harris wins, the glass ceiling will be broken and the United States will have its first female president.
Biggest reason to worry
Outside of the US, it is primarily Ukraine that has reason to worry.Donald Trump has promised to end the war in a day. It is nothing more than unrealistic boasting. Much like when he promised in the 2016 campaign that Mexico would pay for a border wall.
The only way to quickly end the war is to force Ukraine to make major concessions. Trump will try to do that by sharply reducing or completely ending military and economic aid to Ukraine. It will have major consequences for Europe and Sweden, who in that case must put their economies on a war footing if they are to be able to compensate for the lack of US support.
Even if Harris wins, Europe cannot be sure that the USA's strong support for Ukraine will continue. But the chance is significantly greater that she will continue Biden's policy.
Self-governing Taiwan also feels great concern. Biden has promised to defend the island in the event of an attack from China. It is not at all certain that Trump will keep that promise.
His campaign message has been to end all wars and not start new ones. But given the way the world looks, the question is whether he can keep that promise without seriously eroding the liberal world order.
More hands free
Israel will likely get even more freedom in Gaza with a Trump victory. But the Arab countries would welcome Trump. He was the one who brokered the deal for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. They hope Trump will get a similar deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.Anyone who lived through the four years of Trump's presidency remembers what it was like to wake up every morning to Twitter messages that created anxiety, confusion and chaos. Like his war of words with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un where Trump threatened nuclear war.
The storming of the US Congress and the refusal to accept the election loss was the finale of Trump's four years.
But there are also those who believe that his tough and erratic style can be effective in world politics. That everyone is so afraid of what he is going to do that no one dares to go against the United States.
But it will hardly work if Trump is to keep his promise not to start any wars at the same time.
Biden and Harris' four years in power haven't exactly been a miracle of stability either, but at least the free world has cooperated.
At present there is a rare disorder in the world. A fight about where we are going. Towards more authoritarian societies or continued democracy under pressure.
The world survived Donald Trump's first four years in power. Although it was scarce and exhausting.
The question is whether it will survive four more years of Trump rule.
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