After the election: Difficult for Trump to influence the outcome

 

Tina Magnergård Bjers/TT

 

Published 16.22

          

        US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in Washington D.C. on Monday, the day before the              election. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP/TT

Following a vitriolic election campaign, there is concern in the US that Donald Trump might attempt to overturn the results of the midterm elections if they prove unfavorable to the Republicans.

However, according to political science professor William Bianco, the President has very little scope to influence the outcome.

"Trump has already tried to influence the election outcome—unsuccessfully—through lawsuits filed by the Department of Justice in Alaska and California," he says.

Bianco is based at Indiana University, but is currently a visiting professor at the Swedish Institute for North American Studies at Uppsala University.

He emphasizes that Donald Trump has lost virtually every legal case concerning election fraud since 2020.

In the states

Last week, the Department of Justice filed a preemptive lawsuit in Alaska—in anticipation of a potential Democratic victory—citing confusion over candidates' names. The issue stems from the presence of two candidates on the ballot with nearly identical names: the incumbent Republican Senator Daniel S. Sullivan and an independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan, who, according to media reports, was recruited by the Democrats.

However, the matter of the names had already been adjudicated by a court in Alaska, and the lawsuit filed by the Trump administration was dismissed by a federal judge.

A key argument was that, under the US Constitution, elections are organized by the individual states, not at the federal level. The same reasoning underpins the Supreme Court’s decision—made the day before the election—to reject a request from the Trump administration to have California set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots, which they claim may have been cast by non-Americans.

“The President has also failed in other attempts to exert control over the election, such as by restricting mail-in voting and halting the use of certain voting machines,” Bianco points out.

Anger and vetoes?

Trump is likely to be incensed if the midterm congressional elections result in the Democratic “blue wave” predicted by opinion polls. Expect a major outcry on social media and further lawsuits—and he has hinted that he will issue a “veto on everything” if the Democrats take control of Congress.

According to an opinion poll commissioned by *The New York Times* in October, roughly half of all voters are concerned that Trump and the Republicans might attempt to overturn an election result they find unfavorable. However, Bianco considers it unlikely that Trump would order agents from the FBI or ICE to, for instance, seize ballots—a scenario some voters have told TT they fear.

“It is against the law to send armed personnel to polling stations. Besides, the election is already underway, and he has not declared a state of emergency.”

Is there, then, a risk of scenes similar to those of January 6, 2021, when angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol?

“Well, I don’t think you can get away with an event like that twice. The National Guard is already in Washington, D.C., and they will be positioned near the Capitol.”