Sources: He is the one who keeps Hormuz closed
Published 13.49
Donald Trump claims that Iran's rule is deeply divided and is talking about regime change.
But the rule of the mullahs remains, and peace talks are becoming more difficult when uncompromising voices have taken the lead.
After threatening to bomb Iran to pieces, the US president announced an extended ceasefire earlier this week, citing the Iranians' difficulty in figuring out who is in charge.
When Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other powerful figures were killed, there has been a long series of shakeups in Iran's rule and the powerful Revolutionary Guard is considered to have become even more powerful.
More information and interpretations suggest that there is a kind of power struggle going on – at least in terms of how much Iran should push back.
Different bids
When the US first declared a ceasefire, Iran's foreign minister came out and said that the Strait of Hormuz was open to traffic again. Shortly afterwards, the opposite message came, and the Revolutionary Guard closed the strait.
When new peace talks were called off in Pakistan on Monday, there were initially mixed messages from Iran. Finally, an Iranian condition for talks was put forward – that the US would first lift the naval blockade against Iran – which the Revolutionary Guard is said to have pushed through.
Iran's chief negotiator – the otherwise hardline Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – is said to want talks. The new Supreme Leader of the Revolutionary Guard, Ahmad Vahidi, is said to be opposing negotiations – and lobbying for Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed so that a large part of the global oil flow is stopped.
Vahidi seems prepared to risk a resumption of the war, analysts at the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write. And according to leaked sources, he is the one who has had the upper hand this week.
Message of unity
On Friday, Iran's new supreme leader – Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since the outbreak of the war – issued a written battle cry in which he claimed that there is complete unity. Speaker Ghalibaf, the head of the judiciary and President Masoud Pezeshkian made similar statements.
Although some of the Iranian leaders may consider negotiating, they have so far brought with them high demands on the United States. Experts that the news agencies AP and AFP have spoken to see no signs of a major conflict, but highlight the power-sharing as a kind of survival strategy.
Donald Trump has tried to call what is happening a regime change, but the killed leaders have been quickly replaced. In the face of the American threat, the Iranian regime has rather closed in on its demands, Fredrik Meiton, Middle East expert at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Policy, told TT this week:
- Iran has always used time as a strategic weapon. Even now, it is Iran that benefits from a protracted conflict.
FACTS
The rocket attacks in Iran
In the first attacks of the US and Israel in the war, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in Tehran along with several other key figures in the state leadership. In the rocket attacks that have followed, the Revolutionary Guard is considered to have strengthened its mandate.
Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed the new supreme leader. The 56-year-old is said to have close ties and many allies within the Revolutionary Guard.
The Guard's supreme leader Mohammad Pakpour, Chief of General Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh were also killed in the outbreak of war.
General Ahmad Vahidi has taken over as the leader of the Revolutionary Guard. Acting Defense Minister Majid Ibn-Reza has a background there.
The head of Iran's Security Council, Ali Larijani, was killed in mid-March and replaced by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guard.
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