Who won remains to be determined
The runaway train stopped a hair's breadth from large-scale war crimes.
40 days of war with the world hostage can be summed up like this:
Almost everyone lost.
Who won remains to be determined.
There was an emergency brake.
We still don't know exactly why Iran and the US jointly decided to pull it.
That Iran wants to negotiate is hardly surprising. The country has been bombed to pieces for 40 days, and at no point has the regime had any other way out of the war than to reach an agreement.
The US, for its part, was clearly pressured by Trump's insane ultimatum to bomb Iran into the Stone Age, and to destroy its entire civilization.
Not only would a large-scale bombing of a distinctly civilian target be a war crime on a scale humanity has rarely had to experience – it also wouldn't work. The US needed a way out where Trump could save face.
A ceasefire and negotiations are one such way out.
Traffic will pass through the Strait of Hormuz again, stock markets are surging and oil prices are plummeting.
Eight billion shoulders are sinking.
It's as if the world is heaving a collective sigh of relief.
Unfortunately, this drama is not over.
A surprising detail is that continued negotiations will be based on Iran's 10-point peace plan.
Trump himself has said this, and it cannot be interpreted as anything other than a concession.
Iran's demands have been largely the opposite of what the US wanted to achieve.
The list, as presented by Iranian state media, includes promises of an end to US attacks, that US forces should leave the region, that Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium and retain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Using the list as a basis does not of course mean accepting it in its entirety – but if just some of these points are passed, it could mean a strategic victory for the Iranian regime.
It has endured 40 days of war and survived.
If it also gets sanctions relief and keeps its enriched uranium, that is enough to tip the scales in Iran's favor.
This does not sound like something the US should be able to agree to.
This highlights that the US and Iran are actually, on the substantive issues, as far apart as they were 40 days ago.
This suggests that the war may not be over after all.
On the other hand, the question is what number of additional bombs could untie the knot, if the enormous number that has already pulverized Iran were not enough.
So what has all this served?
Iran's ability to attack and harm its surroundings has decreased. The arms industry is in ruins, large parts of the missile stockpiles destroyed. That is good.
But the price is high.
Thousands of dead, countless billions of kronor lost, international norms shattered, all of us even closer to the lawless world at the end of the downhill slide where every man is his neighbor's wolf.
The negotiations of the next few weeks will determine who won.
Right now, almost everyone is a loser.
Trafik ska passera genom Hormuz-sundet igen, börserna rusar och oljepriserna rasar.
Åtta miljarder axlar sjunker.
Det är som om världen drar en kollektiv suck av lättnad.
Tyvärr är det här dramat inte över.
En förvånande detalj är att fortsatta förhandlingar ska utgå från Irans 10-punktsplan för fred.
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