The ceasefire between the US and Iran in danger
This weekend, the attacks continued.
The ceasefire between Iran and the US is hanging by an increasingly fragile thread.
– The parties must establish some form of contact, says Jan Hallenberg, a security policy expert.
On Sunday evening, information came that new agreements had been concluded.
The US has attacked Iran again – and Iran has targeted American bases in countries around the Persian Gulf. Among other things, there have been attacks with drones and missiles in Bahrain and Kuwait.
The latest escalation started on Thursday, when a ship in the Strait of Hormuz was said to have been attacked by a drone that came from Iran. From the side of Iran and the Revolutionary Guard, it has been described as the ship violating the applicable rules.
Donald Trump has threatened that if the war resumes, Iran will be “destroyed”.
“Forced to finish”
“There may come a point where we can no longer be reasonable and militarily are forced to finish the job that we have very successfully started,” the US president wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.
“If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.”
The US had then carried out attacks on Iran from the air again. The attacks were more extensive than those that took place a day earlier, according to The New York Times.
"Unclear"
One of the problems - and one of the reasons the conflict continues - is that the declaration of intent is unclear.
That's what Jan Hallenberg, an expert on US foreign and security policy, says.
- The agreement is unclearly written in paragraph five. It says nothing about the US having any role in the strait. Instead, it is only Iran, which in collaboration with Oman, is supposed to have it. And Iran sees it as meaning that no ships should be brought through the strait without being informed. When the US tries to do that, they are, in Iran's view, violating the agreement, he says.
Staying out of the way
He continues:
- Then the US has said, I think it was JD Vance last time, that "if the Iranians are dissatisfied, they can just pick up the phone".
But Jan Hallenberg doesn't think there is any phone to pick up.
– Another problem is that there is no single decision-maker who has the full right to make these decisions, as far as we can judge. There is a religious leader who is staying away. And then they have a president who has considerably less power. And then they have a foreign minister who has even less power.
“Must establish contact”
Resuming shipping in the Strait of Hormuz – a bottleneck for a large part of the world's oil exports – is one of the most important points in the declaration of intent. At the outbreak of war, Iran stopped traffic with attacks and threats, which shook the world economy.
– I think it will continue to be like this for a while. If things are not to go badly, they have to somehow agree on what is at stake. Some form of contact has to be established, says Jan Hallenberg.
And perhaps a new ceasefire could be close. According to Axios, the US and Iran have already agreed to stop attacking each other.
This is according to a senior US official for the news site.
They are also planning to meet on Tuesday in the Qatari capital Doha to try to resolve the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios.
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