Boris Johnson Brexit stabs the Conservative Party in the back
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 15.03 | Published 15.02
Johnson's broken promises and scandals appear to be costing the Conservative Party dearly. Photo: Matt Dunham/AP
Brexit was the Conservative Party's great success and blessing.
The same Brexit is now coming back and stabbing the party in the back in what is expected to be a historically disastrous election loss.
But Labor doesn't really have a plan for how to handle its expected electoral success.
Quick version It is not Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's mistake of going home early from the D-Day celebrations or the flaring scandal involving Tory MPs who gambled the election that is behind the historic defeat that looks set to await the Conservative Party.
The elephant in the room is Brexit, the exit from the EU.
The same Brexit as in 2019 saw the party under then party leader Boris Johnson win a landslide victory.
In the choice between an extreme left-wing Labor and the chance to leave the EU, a large majority of Labor voters also chose to vote for the Tory party.
But Brexit did not turn out to be what they envisioned or were promised.
Instead of Boris Johnson's promises of gold and green forests and greatly reduced immigration, the British experienced empty store shelves and a record number of boat refugees across the English Channel.
On top of that came a pandemic in which Boris Johnson gave orders for a more or less total shutdown. Except for himself and the government. There they partied together while ordinary Britons were locked in their apartments without the opportunity to see loved ones.
Labor leader Keir Starmer is very careful not to take any victory in advance. Photo: Stefan Rousseau / AP
Can be quite expensive
When the British voted to leave the EU in 2016, 52 percent were in favor and 48 against. A slim majority. Today, opinion polls show that a clear majority of Britons, 55 percent, think it was wrong to leave the EU. Less than one in three think it was right.
Johnson's broken promises and scandals appear to be costing the Conservative Party dearly.
The chaos of Johnson being replaced by first Liz Truss, who was ousted in record time, and then Rishi Sunak has not helped.
Opinion polls show that the conservatives are almost wiped out. From today's 365 seats in the House of Commons to 53.
Labor can get its own absolute majority in parliament. A result that may even surpass Tony Blair's legendary victory in 1997. Leader Keir Starmer is busy tempering high expectations and not claiming victory in advance.
He knows that the British do not suddenly love Labor or him. Rather, it is about a widespread dissatisfaction with the way the conservatives have managed the country in the last 14 years.
Plus the fact that Labor under Starmer has become more of the center party it was under Tony Blair. He is a far more palatable candidate for Conservative voters than the radical left former leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Sunak is trying to scare voters that Labor will raise taxes. Photo: Thomas Krych / AP
One-way ticket to Rwanda
But above all, it is about the fact that the working-class voters in England's industrial areas who abandoned Labor five years ago for Boris Johnson have now found their home again.
Sunak is trying to scare voters that Labor will raise taxes. His problem is that half of Britons want taxes to be raised (for the rich) to fund the old flagship NHS. The health care system that to some extent collapsed during the pandemic and after all the cuts that the conservatives implemented.
Prime Minister Sunak had hoped that the issue of immigration would become a lifeline for his party.
The Conservatives have a plan to put asylum seekers who enter the UK illegally on a plane to Rwanda in Africa. With a one-way ticket. The idea is that they should be able to search for awl there. If they are judged to be in need of protection, they can stay in Rwanda. They must never set foot in Britain.
Sunak had hoped that the first plans would have taken off in time for the election. Unfortunately for him, the outsourcing of the asylum process to Rwanda is still largely an untested paper construct.
Perhaps the method will never be tried. Labor says no to Rwanda flights and instead wants to stop the flow of boat refugees by forming a special force and working more closely with France.
Labor generally wants to mend some of the broken ties with the EU. It is far too early to talk about Britain becoming part of the Union again, but Starmer wants to bury the hatchet in order to try to improve conditions for the British Isles.
Nigel Farage, the man who effectively forced the Brexit referendum, is back as leader of the Reform UK party. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP
Scattered across the country
Because what the divorce showed more than anything else is how dependent the UK is on the rest of Europe and the EU on the UK.
The threat to the conservatives also comes from the right. Nigel Farage, the man who effectively forced the Brexit referendum, is back as leader of the Reform UK party.
His populist message, not unlike that of the French National Assembly, attracts voters from both the Tories and Labour. In the opinion polls, Farage's party is third with 16 percent, just a few percentage points behind the Conservatives.
But because the party's voters are spread across the country, the electoral system means that Farage is poorly paid for the votes he pulls in.
But by taking votes primarily from the Conservatives, he contributes to increasing the size of Labour's presumed election victory.
It is not just in jest that he is mentioned as a possible successor to Sunak as leader of the Conservatives. If the expected fallout is realized, Sunak's days as party leaders are numbered.
Opinion polls show that he even risks losing his seat in parliament.
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