Economy

Nobel Prize-winning economist sees the idea of ​​Trump's tariffs

Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Johnson believes that Donald Trump's tariffs are provoking countries around the world to retaliate. He says so in tonight's Agenda on SVT.

- I think it's a terrible idea and a terrible act, he says in the program.

He believes that it could lead to a full-scale trade war. He believes that the financial sector is at risk of taking a beating and compares it to the Great Depression almost 100 years ago.

The economist also sees the idea that Trump's policies are business-friendly. Some jobs may be created, but many will also disappear because of the tariffs.

- The government will go down in history as one of the most anti-business governments in US history.

Simon Johnson was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in December 2024.

Analysis: Tariffs may put the Riksbank to the test

Amidst the stock market chaos, not everything is gloom and doom. This is what DN's Carl Johan von Seth writes in an analysis, pointing to the unexpectedly low inflation figure in March.

He raises a warning finger for Donald Trump's tariff war, but points to the krona rally as an airbag against inflation risks in Sweden. At the same time, the strong krona could become a problem for how the Riksbank will act going forward.

- Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen and his colleagues are probably scratching their heads extra hard over the krona's strengthening, he writes.

SvD's Johan Carlström instead sees it as likely that the tariffs will have an impact on the Swedish economy, which ultimately leads to lower consumption and interest rate cuts. At the same time, he warns that the tariffs could lead to a much worse scenario, namely stagflation with rising prices when the economy is weak.

“In a stagflation scenario, the Riksbank faces a difficult decision. Should they lower the interest rate to get the economy going, or raise it to push back inflation?”, he writes.

Norwegian proposal: Sweden has no joy in the krona

Former State Secretary PM Nilsson’s recent proposal to exchange the krona for the euro in 2025 is now being cheered on from across the mountains. Eika Gruppen’s chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen says that Norway should join in if that is the case, writes Dagbladet’s stock website Børsen.

– The Swedes understand that they have no joy in their krona, he says.

Jan Ludvig Andreassen believes that Sweden, unlike Denmark, wants to “have a seat at the table” when the EU determines interest rates and monetary policy during “Europe’s fateful moment”.

And once Sweden joins the euro, Norway will "fall behind," the chief economist tells Børsen.

JP Morgan is on board - warns of recession in the US

JP Morgan is the latest major American bank to warn that Trump's tariff policy risks leading the US economy into recession, reports TT.

The major bank has cut its GDP forecast significantly, down to 0.3 percent from the previous 1.3 percent. In parallel, unemployment is expected to increase to 5.3 percent.

The forecast comes after sector colleagues Citi and UBS, among others, presented similar assessments.