Must chief's warning about new "Swedish CIA": "Risk of declining effectiveness"

Victor Stenquist

Published 14.18

 

Photo: Lotte Fernvall

VISBY The Armed Forces criticized the establishment of a "Swedish CIA". 

With the Ukraine war in full force, the head of the military intelligence service, Must, is now warning that intelligence capabilities could suffer when the government's new authority is built up.

- There is also a risk that we would decline too far in effectiveness, says Must chief Thomas Nilsson.

Quick version

• Must chief Thomas Nilsson warns that intelligence capabilities could be negatively affected when the new civilian intelligence service Und is formed and parts of Must's operations are moved there.
• The new civilian intelligence agency is scheduled to start on January 1, 2027, and Must is working intensively to ensure that the security situation is managed until then.
• Despite Ukraine having had some success against Russia, Must considers it unlikely that the situation on the battlefield will change significantly in the near future, and Russia does not seem interested in negotiations.

The new Swedish civilian intelligence service, Und, is due to be up and running by 1 January 2027.

These are therefore urgent times for the military intelligence service, Must, which at the same time has to deal with a constantly extensive hybrid warfare threat from, above all, Russia.

According to the investigation, which was led by Carl Bildt, parts of Must's intelligence operations will move to the new civilian service, which will report to the government.

- When the Armed Forces commented on the investigation, we pointed out a number of risks. One of those risks is if the change is implemented very hastily and quickly, and that is the government's direction. Then we see that making that type of change during the current security situation, so we have pointed out that it is a risk, says Thomas Nilsson, head of Must.

Sweden's foreign intelligence service, UND, will be under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and will be operational on January 1 next year. Photo: Johan Jeppsson/TT

He continues:

- In the response to the government at the end of January, we describe how we could develop the military intelligence service. Then we pointed out how we could to some extent manage that risk. But I think that this rapid process, it is a risk that we need to manage throughout the journey.

"Working frantically"

For a layman, Januari 1, 2027 sounds like very soon. has the risk been eliminated or dose it remain todaye?

- I think even for non-laymen it feels like very soon. No, but we are now working frantically together with this implementation committee that is responsible for getting its authority up and running on January 1, 2027.

During a seminar at Almedalen Week in Visby, Must Chief Thomas Nilsson ranked his three priorities right now.

Assisting the implementation committee is currently only third on the list.

         

         Thomas Nilsson, Head of Military Intelligence and Security Service, Must. Photo: Lotte Fernvall

The highest priority is to continue to deliver on the intelligence needs Sweden has to protect itself against attacks right now. The second priority is to develop and improve that particular activity.

But  should this date be postponed in your eyes?

– I have no opinion on that. I usually say that I have it so simple that I don't need to evaluate the government's decisions, I just implement them in the best way. But it is a risk, we are discussing it and we will try to manage it in the best possible way.

What does the risk mean, is it that you lose capacity during the move, for example? 

– We can’t afford to lose any ball now, given the security situation. So there is also a risk that we would go too far down in power. I think you have to take into account that all types of changes to this cut mean a loss of power. But we want it to be manageable and that’s what we’re working on resolving.

 

Thomas Nilsson warns of a loss of power when the new organization is launched. Photo: Lotte Fernvall

”Ukraine is holding out”

During the seminar, Thomas Nilsson talked about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from Russia’s full-scale invasion, and about the importance of continued and tougher sanctions against Russia.

What is Must's assessment at the moment? How is Ukraine doing?

– Ukraine is holding out and the Russian advance is non-existent or small at a very high price. What has happened recently is that Ukraine has also taken certain initiatives regarding this long-range combat that I call against strategic targets in Russia. We have seen some spectacular clips and other things, the oil infrastructure for example. But otherwise the situation is quite static.

What does that mean, what assessments do you make about how long it will continue?

– It is very difficult to say, but we do not see anything that would change the situation we have now in the short term. We believe that Russia is sticking to its goals that I mentioned. And there is no, we assess, real Russian willingness to negotiate. Ukraine has sent out some feelers, but they have been met with quite coldness from Moscow. So unfortunately we believe that the static situation on the battlefield looks set to continue for a while.

         

         Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region. Photo: Andriy Andriyenko/AP/TT