Under pressure from attacks – Crown Prince’s vision damaged

 

Erik Norbergh/TT

 

Published 05.45

 

The Saudi Crown Prince during a visit to Paris in August of this year. Photo: Julie Sebadelha/AP/TT

Saudi Arabia’s leader, Mohammed bin Salman, has presided over a brutal yet wealthy dictatorship. Now, however, the country is being shaken by a faltering economy and intense attacks from the Iranian-backed Houthi movement.

“His enemies might argue that he lacks control,” says Thord Jansson, an expert on Saudi Arabia.

Over the weekend, King Khalid International Airport—the country’s second-largest—was hit by two deadly attacks. In one of these, at least twelve people were killed and over 300 were injured.

The Houthi movement in neighboring Yemen has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Seeking reform

These developments threaten Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plans to transform Saudi Arabia, a nation heavily dependent on oil.

In 2016, he launched “Vision 2030,” a reform program aimed at attracting tourists and investors. However, according to the country’s statistics authority, foreign investment has declined during the first two quarters of this year.

“Vision 2030 is about building massive skyscrapers, investing in AI, and all sorts of exciting projects in Saudi Arabia. It’s not supposed to be a country where you can’t fly a plane because ballistic missiles are raining down,” says Aron Lund, a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI).

Others may be ahead in line

Formally, 90-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz rules the country, but in practice, his 41-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, effectively took the reins long ago. Bin Salman has been named Crown Prince, but in reality, other members of the Saudi royal family could be considered ahead of him in the line of succession—and they might exploit current events to their advantage, according to Thord Jansson, an expert on Saudi Arabia.

"His enemies could argue that he lacks control," says Thord Jansson, who is affiliated with the University of Gothenburg.

However, he notes that it is difficult to gauge the extent of any discontent within the royal family.

The Iran conflict complicates matters

"It is impossible to tell from the outside, as no one is saying anything. It is possible that he [the Crown Prince] is aware of the issue and is trying to compensate for it in some way, but my impression is that he lacks sufficient experience. He is relatively young and likely does not grasp how cooperation within the royal family has historically functioned," says Thord Jansson.

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has provided military support to the internationally recognized government in Yemen. However, the situation has been exacerbated by the conflict between Iran, on one side, and Israel and the United States, on the other.

Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia in retaliation, and it is now reported that Saudi Arabia’s air defenses have significant gaps. Sources have told *The Wall Street Journal* that the kingdom is being forced to shift its air defense systems around to protect palaces and energy infrastructure.

"If the U.S. and Iran eventually reach some form of agreement, it will likely become easier to de-escalate the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen as well," says Aron Lund.