Current situation
The fate of the world is being decided - this is how the great powers play
Niclas Vent
Published 18.30
Russia, the USA, Europe and Ukraine are caught up in a power game that is determining the future of the world.
One where the roles are now being reversed in real time.
This is what the four most important players think about each other - right now.
USA
... about Russia:
When the UN General Assembly on Monday voted through a resolution in support of Ukraine, most countries in the world were in favor: Sweden, France, Great Britain, Japan - almost all of the US's allies.
Only 18 countries were against, including Russia, North Korea, Belarus - and the US.
The vote illustrates how quickly and far US policy towards Russia has swung under Donald Trump.
Trump has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone and pushed for a quick end to the war. In advance of the negotiations with Russia, Trump also seems to have given away many cards in advance:
His defense secretary has said that a return to Ukraine's recognized borders is "unrealistic" and that NATO membership for Ukraine is out of the question.
... on Europe:
During the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance lectured European countries about thir, in his opinion, flawed democracies. Just days earlier, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US would not contribute any troops to secure peace in Ukraine.
Trump's gang clearly wants to work for greater power for the parties in Europe that they perceive to be closest to themselves ideologically: right-wing populists and right-wing extremists.
Trump advisor Elon Musk campaigned intensively for the far-right AfD in the German elections, and Vance only met with AFD leader Alice Weidel in Munich - not Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“Should these parties eventually dominate Europe, they could dilute NATO and geopolitically castrate Europe. That is certainly what Russia hopes for,” writes security researcher Dana H. Allin in the New York Times.
“The United States is now the enemy of the West,” writes economic commentator Martin Wolfin the Financial Times.
... on Ukraine:
Donald Trump is trying to force Ukraine to agree to a peace deal with Russia.
He also wants to force Ukraine to sign an agreement that would give the United States Ukrainian minerals worth $500 billion, according to several media outlets.
This is many times more than the aid the United States has given Ukraine so far.
Donald Trump has falsely claimed that Ukraine started the war with Russia, and called President Zelensky a “dictator.”
RUSSIA
...about the US:
Trump’s phone call with Putin on February 12, and the talks between the countries’ foreign ministers in Riyadh on February 18, have broken Russia’s isolation.
Now Trump seems to be helping Putin with his long-term goal: to keep the conquered parts of Ukraine, first of all, but perhaps also to reduce the American presence in Eastern Europe and crush NATO.
– If Russia gets its way now, it won't end with Ukraine, believe me. We know that Putin will continue, because his mind is full of imperialism and spheres of interest, says Finnish president Alexander Stubb.
... on Europe:
Russia wants a new European security order and the right to its own Russian sphere of interest, according to Sweden's military intelligence and security service (Must).
Putin's vision is that a number of global powers will be allowed to rule and do as they please in their own spheres. In Europe, both the EU and NATO are therefore obstacles to Russian power. "Towards the West, they have chosen confrontation," writes Must.
... on Ukraine:
Russia is in no hurry to end the war. A quick ceasefire is not in the cards, according to Foreign minister Lavrov.
“The Russian president has not abandoned his ‘maximalist’ goal – to completely subjugate Ukraine,” writes Fredrik Wesslau, a researcher at the Center for East European Studies, in an analysis.
According to Wesslau, Putin sees how Russia is slowly but surely gaining ground, while Ukraine is becoming weaker and Western support appears to be declining.
EUROPE
... about the US:
Trump's rapprochement with Russia and the threat of a forced, disadvantageous peace in Ukraine have sent shockwaves through Europe.
This at the same time as danish intelligence warns that Russia, just two years after the end of the war in Ukraine, could be ready for a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea region.
The extraordinary crisis meetings have succeeded each other. Both French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are traveling to the US this week to reason with Trump.
Just hours after winning the German election on Sunday, CDU leader Friedrich Merz said on television that "Donald Trump does not care much about the fate of Europe" and that his priority was to "step by step ... achieve independence from the US". He was also unsure whether NATO would exist "in its current form" by the summer.
The bond between Europe and the US - which has kept peace in Western Europe for 80 years - is seriously damaged.
Europe is not only “existentially vulnerable, but also seemingly alone,” writes former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
... on Russia:
At the same time, the EU has increasingly clearly pointed out Russia as responsible for a wave of hybrid attacks against Europe: cyberattacks, election manipulation, arson, vandalism and sabotage.
At the same time, the EU is not entirely united. There are countries in the EU circle that have closer ties to Russia. Hungary of course, but also Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer have visited Putin in Moscow.
The question is how the EU can maintain sanctions against Russia, and joint support for Ukraine, without American leadership.
... on Ukraine:
For most European countries, it is vital that Ukraine survives as an independent, secure and sustainable state.
Intensive talks are now underway on how European troops could be deployed to secure Ukraine after a ceasefire.
UKRAINE
...aboutUS:
Since the US election, Zelensky has clearly made an effort to speak well of Donald Trump. He has praised his “strength” and “unpredictability”, and claimed that Putin is afraid of him.
That strategy does not seem to have worked.
Instead, the US chose to negotiate with Russia in Saudi Arabia, without Ukraine and the EU at the table.
– It was surprising for us, and for many others, I think, said Zelensky.
– Decisions on how to end the war in Ukraine cannot be made without Ukraine.
...about Russia:
Zelensky has long ruled out peace talks as long as Putin is president, and has stuck to his peace plan, which, among other things, requires Russia to leave all occupied territories.
Recently, he has opened up about exchanging territories that Ukraine holds in Kursk for others that Russia occupies – but did not specify that it must be all occupied territories.
– I don’t know, we’ll see. But all our territories are important, there is no priority.
...about Europe:
Among the European countries are Ukraine’s most steadfast allies. Especially in Northeastern Europe are the countries that have donated the most money and equipment, relative to their own GDP.
At the same time, the EU countries are divided on crucial issues, for example on NATO membership for Ukraine, the solution called for by President Zelenskyj:
– I really believe that these are the cheapest security guarantees that Ukraine can get, the cheapest for everyone, says Zelenskyj.
FACTS
Defense spending in NATO (2024)
All 8 countries in Northeastern Europe (Iceland has no defense force) are among the 14 NATO countries with the highest defense spending.
Annual defense spending, as a percentage of GDP, 2024.
1. Polen ((4,12 percent of GD)
2. Estonia (3,43)
3.United States (3.38)
4. Latvia (3,15)
5. Greece (3.08)
6. Lithuania (2,85)
7. Finland (2,41)
8. Denmark (2,37)
9. United Kingdom (2.33)
10. Romania (2.25)
11. North Macedonia (2.22)
12. Norway (2,20)
13. Bulgaria (2.18)
14. Sweden (2,14)
15. Germany (2.12)
FACTS
Support for Ukraine
All seven countries that provide the most relative support to Ukraine are located in northeastern Europe. Aid to Ukraine as a share of GDP, including share of EU joint aid, between 24 January 2022 and 31 August 2024.
1. Denmark (2.2 percent of GDP)
2. Estonia (2,2)
3. Lithuania (1.9)
4.Latvia (1.7)
5. Finland (1.2)
6. Sweden (1.0)
7. Polen (1.0)
8. Slovakia (1.0)
9. Netherlands (0.9)
10. Czech Republic (0.8)
11. Croatia (0.8)
12. Belgium (0.7)
13. Norway (0.6)
Source: Kiel Institute (NB: The figures refer to total aid over approximately 2.5 years in relation to each country's GDP in a single year. Sweden has thus provided the equivalent of 1 percent of one year's GDP in total, not 1 percent of GDP per year.)
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