He finds it difficult to deny an extended truce in the war

Columnists 

 

The Israel/Palestine conflict 

  

Therefore, Netanyahu finds it difficult to say no to an extended ceasefire  

 

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Updated 14.19 | Published 14.06  

 

There are many indications that the cease-fire in Gaza will be extended by at least a few days.  

 

It will be difficult if not impossible for Prime Minister Netanyahu to start the war again if Hamas is willing to release more hostages.  

 

Yesterday, Netanyahu visited the Israeli troops in Gaza and promised that the war will resume as soon as possible. The message from Israel's commander-in-chief is the same.  

 

At the same time, the released hostage has partly changed the calculation. 

 

Israel has two goals with its war.  

 

To crush terrorist-labeled Hamas once and for all.  

 

To get as many people out of the hostages alive as possible.  

 

Now that the release of the hostages has begun and worked surprisingly smoothly, Netanyahu is under intense pressure to ensure that more are released.  

 

The pressure comes both from the relatives but also from US President Joe Biden. It is simply a matter of freeing as many hostages as possible before the fighting possibly resumes. The hostage may well otherwise become a victim of the war. 

 

The risk Netanyahu takes if he agrees to extend the ceasefire when it expires Tuesday morning is that the dynamic of the war changes. The longer the pause lasts, the more motivation the Israeli soldiers in Gaza lose and the more difficult it may be to start hostilities again. 

 

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is photographed with Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip u Photo: Avi Ohayon / AP  

 

It is clear that Hamas would like to get rid of the large part of the hostages, which consists of women, children and the elderly. In a situation where there is a great shortage of most things in Gaza, it is not easy to obtain food, water and medicine for the hostages.  

 

In the past, Hamas has had at most three hostages at the same time. The 240 people we had now place completely different demands on the logistics.  

 

Bread and rice  

 

From the little that has come out so far, it appears that the hostage ate a lot of rice and bread. And that they lost weight. Probably because there was a shortage of food in the tunnels where they were held captive. In many ways, it is a relief for Hamas not to have to try to keep the hostages alive.  

 

But there is a limit to how many the group is prepared to let go without getting "better pay".  

 

The most valuable prisoners are the Israeli soldiers. For them, Hamas can free far more Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons than the current distribution, one hostage to three Palestinians. They can also be used as means of pressure in other ways in the war. When the soldier Gilad Shalit was released in 2011 after five years of captivity by Hamas, Israel agreed to release over a thousand Palestinian prisoners. 

 

Netanyahu is sending double signals.  

 

He says the war should start again as soon as possible but at the same time keeps the door open to an extension of the ceasefire as long as Hamas is willing to release at least ten hostages for each day the ceasefire is extended.  

 

An extension would give Hamas additional opportunities to regroup and rest after more than six weeks of intense bombing and ground fighting. But if Israel can free more of the hostages, it may still be worth it for Netanyahu.  

 

The Israeli army is also given additional time to gather intelligence and refine its strategy. 

 

Increased losses  

 

Now that it has control over northern Gaza and most of Hamas's soldiers and its leadership have moved to the southern parts of the strip, it places new demands on warfare.  

 

A large part of the civilian population has heeded Israel's call to flee to the south. But if the war now moves there, it means a greatly increased risk of civilian casualties if Israel starts the war again on a large scale. There is simply nowhere for the civilians to flee.  

 

According to Hamas, around 13,000 Palestinians have already been killed, of which over 5,000 are said to be children. Israel has already received harsh international criticism and has been accused of war crimes by not adequately protecting the civilian population.  

 

The international storm of criticism risks growing to hurricane force if Israel begins extensive bombing in an area where it has urged the civilian population to flee.  

 

What is required is more surgical warfare that more specifically strikes Hamas rather than the civilian population. Which won't be easy because Hamas hides among the civilian population and in its tunnel system. 

 

In addition, the risk of Israeli losses increases with more close combat. 

 

Even though the war has caused enormous devastation, especially in northern Gaza, it is unclear how great losses Israel has managed to inflict on Hamas. The leaders appear to be still alive and reports on how many Hamas fighters have been killed vary widely. 

 

It is clear that Hamas is more interested in extending the ceasefire than Israel.  

 

But even if it is extended by a few days, it is most likely that Israel will resume hostilities on a large scale as soon as no more hostages are released.