Donald Trump
Here is the power block that will challenge Putin
Should Europe be "Trump safe" - now they meet in Sweden
Niclas Vent
Updated 10.43 | Published 09.40
Quick versionThey spend the most money on their defenses, give the most support to Ukraine - and will be the first to fight if Russia attacks.
Nine countries in north-eastern Europe have stepped forward as a new power block in the EU and NATO.
Now their leaders are meeting in Sweden - to "Trump-secure" Europe.
The countries whose leaders will gather on Wednesday at Harpsund in Sörmland have more and more in common in terms of security policy:
- Nine countries in northeastern Europe are meeting in Sweden to strengthen their defense strategy and ensure support from the United States in an uncertain political time with Donald Trump as a possible future president.
- The group, which includes the Nordics, the Baltics and Poland, sees a Russian threat as existential and has invested in military resources to strengthen its defense preparedness.
- Frictions within Europe over how to deal with Russia pose a risk to NATO's unity and defense capability along the northern flank, which the Northeast European countries see as critical.
Nine countries in north-eastern Europe have stepped forward as a new power block in the EU and NATO.
Now their leaders are meeting in Sweden - to "Trump-secure" Europe.
The Minister of Defense: "Your safety is our safety"
The Nordic countries. Baltic States. Poland.The countries whose leaders will gather on Wednesday at Harpsund in Sörmland have more and more in common in terms of security policy:
- They give the most support to Ukraine, and are the most invested in Ukrainian victory.
- They have tied themselves closest to the United States, and have the most to lose if Donald Trump distances himself from Europe.
- The entire NATO front against Russia and Belarus runs along their
borders. If the Alliance goes to war, this is where it will be fought.
Indeed, since the 2022 invasion, most of the continent has come to see Russia as a threat to European security and the rules-based world order in general.
But for the countries of north-eastern Europe, the threat is existential.
- There is a history of Russian claims to the territory of several of the countries. And although this does not apply to all the countries in the group, everyone shares that understanding of Russia and Russian intentions, says Emelie Thorburn, researcher at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI).
Could become a threat to NATO
The image of Putin as the big problem, so obvious here in the north, is not widely shared throughout Europe.Other countries see more serious problems with instability in North Africa and the Middle East (Spain and Italy), migration (Hungary) or terrorism (Turkey).
In addition, there is a group of countries that want to tone down the hostility towards Russia, and work for more cooperation with the aggressive neighbor to the east (Slovakia, Hungary, Austria).
The wear and tear could become a threat to NATO's defense of the northern flank:
"The differing threat perceptions of European states have the potential to undermine Western unity and cohesion, hinder cooperation and direct attention and resources away from NATO's objective of deterring and defending Northern Europe," FOI writes in a report.
Are isolated
The eight countries in the Nordics and Baltics have long cooperated in the format known as NB8.When Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk now joins the summit in Sweden, it signals a powerful addition.
Poland has the region's most significant ground forces, and relative to GDP invests the most in its defense of all NATO countries.
The Baltic countries are isolated on their side of the Baltic Sea, connected only to Poland via the narrow Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Russian Kaliningrad.
The nine countries have little chance of holding the Baltics themselves against a Russian attack, if no reinforcements come further west.
That is why the countries in this group invested so heavily in the relationship with the United States.
They have invested heavily in American defense equipment, such as Patriot air defenses (Sweden, Poland), F-35 aircraft (Denmark, Norway, Finland, Poland) and Himars artillery (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland).
All the Nordic coun
Could become a threat to NATO
The image of Putin as the big problem, so obvious here in the north, is not widely shared throughout Europe.
Other countries see more serious problems with instability in North Africa and the Middle East (Spain and Italy), migration (Hungary) or terrorism (Turkey).
In addition, there is a group of countries that want to tone down the hostility towards Russia, and work for more cooperation with the aggressive neighbor to the east (Slovakia, Hungary, Austria).
The wear and tear could become a threat to NATO's defense of the northern flank:
"The differing threat perceptions of European states have the potential to undermine Western unity and cohesion, hinder cooperation and direct attention and resources away from NATO's objective of deterring and defending Northern Europe," FOI writes in a report.
The image of Putin as the big problem, so obvious here in the north, is not widely shared throughout Europe.
Other countries see more serious problems with instability in North Africa and the Middle East (Spain and Italy), migration (Hungary) or terrorism (Turkey).
In addition, there is a group of countries that want to tone down the hostility towards Russia, and work for more cooperation with the aggressive neighbor to the east (Slovakia, Hungary, Austria).
The wear and tear could become a threat to NATO's defense of the northern flank:
"The differing threat perceptions of European states have the potential to undermine Western unity and cohesion, hinder cooperation and direct attention and resources away from NATO's objective of deterring and defending Northern Europe," FOI writes in a report.
The image of Putin as the big problem is not widely shared across Europe.
The image of Putin as the big problem is not widely shared across Europe. Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofyev / AP
Are isolated
The eight countries in the Nordics and Baltics have long cooperated in the format known as NB8.
When Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk now joins the summit in Sweden, it signals a powerful addition.
Poland has the region's most significant ground forces, and relative to GDP invests the most in its defense of all NATO countries.
NATO ships during an exercise in the Baltic Sea in 2023.
NATO ships during an exercise in the Baltic Sea in 2023. Photo: Sergei Grits / AP
However, anyone who has a map can see that the geographical location is still awkward.
The Baltic countries are isolated on their side of the Baltic Sea, connected only to Poland via the narrow Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Russian Kaliningrad.
The nine countries have little chance of holding the Baltics themselves against a Russian attack, if no reinforcements come further west.
That is why the countries in this group invested so heavily in the relationship with the United States.
- They have invested heavily in American defense equipment, such as Patriot air defenses (Sweden, Poland), F-35 aircraft (Denmark, Norway, Finland, Poland) and Himars artillery (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland).
- All the Nordic countries have similar defense agreements (DCAs) with the US in place, and in Poland there are 10,000 American soldiers stationed over time. The US has a corps headquarters in Poznań and a robotic defense base in Redzikowo.
The countries in the north-east therefore have limited interest in the "strategic autonomy" for the EU that French President Emmanuel Macron has propagated.
"Challenge for everyone"
But support from the United States is in flux, since Donald Trump was elected president.The meeting in Sweden is about how northern NATO will meet the challenge.
- On the first day, we will devote the discussion to the transatlantic relations, with a United States in change as the center, says Ulf Kristersson.
In that, Donald Tusk will have a key role. After the election in the United States, he has engaged in intensive diplomacy. Meetings with Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have already been completed before he arrives in Sweden.
- The new political landscape is a serious challenge for everyone, especially in the context of a possible end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, Tusk said after the election.
Tusk's role will be heavy, not least because the other EU leaders who usually meet in the so-called "Weimar triangle" are seriously injured:
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has collapsed, and the country is headed for new elections early next year.
- In France, Macron saw his party crushed in the parliamentary elections last fall, and he has just over two years left in his second term as president.
Sharing the threat landscape analysis
From 1 January, Donald Tusk will also take over the chairmanship of the EU Council of Ministers, when Poland takes over as the chairman country after Hungary.At the same time, more and more heavy security roles are occupied by politicians from Northern Europe:
Estonian Kaja Kallas will soon become the EU's foreign affairs chief, Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius will become the Union's first defense commissioner and Dutch Mark Rutte took office last autumn as NATO's secretary general.
In their view of Russia and the importance of a strong European defense, the countries of north-eastern Europe can also rely on Great Britain and the Netherlands, which largely share the same threat analysis.
FACTS
Defense spending in NATO (2024)
Annual defense spending, as a percentage of GDP, 2024.
- Poland (4,12 percent of GPD)
- Estonia (3,43)
- USA (3,38)
- Latvia (3,15)
- Greece (3,08)
- Lithuania (2,85)
- Finland (2,41)
- Danmark (2,37)
- Great Britain (2,33)
- Romania (2,25)
- North Macedonia (2,22)
- Norway (2,20)
- Bulgaria (2,18)
- Sweden (2,14)
- Germany (2,12)
Support to Ukraine
All of the seven countries that give relatively the most aid to Ukraine are located in northeastern Europe. Aid to Ukraine as a share of GDP, including share of EU common aid, between 24 January 2022 and 31 August 2024.- Danmark (2.2 percent of GDP)
- Estonia (2,2)
- Lithuania (1,9)
- Latvia (1,7)
- Finland (1,2)
- Sweden (1,0)
- Poland (1,0)
- Slovakia (1,0)
- Netherderland (0,9)
- Czech Republic (0,8)
- Croatia (0,8)
- Belgium (0,7)
- Norway (0,6)
FACTS
The Nordic and Baltic countries in the EU
Together with Poland, the Nordic and Baltic countries make up 15 percent of the EU's population and 30 percent of the area.Decision-making makes up 25 percent of the countries at summits and in the Council of Ministers (7 out of 27) and 18 percent of the votes in the EU Parliament (131 members out of 720).
Several of the countries have also been given important posts in the next EU Commission, which is expected to take office from 1 December. Estonia's Kaja Kallas will become vice-chairman and head of foreign affairs, Finland's Henna Virkkunen will become vice-chairman and responsible for digital security and democracy, Lithuania's Andrius Kubilius will become defense commissioner, Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis will be responsible for finance and Poland's Piotr Serafin will be most responsible for the budget.
Source: TT
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar