torsdag 28 november 2024

The Middle East crisis

Israel-Hezbollah
Accusations from both sides of ceasefire violations

The Israeli military (IDF) has fired on what it describes as "suspects" in southern Lebanon, Reuters reports. Hezbollah instead accuses Israel of attacking people returning to their villages in the south.

According to the IDF, several people were observed arriving in vehicles in various areas of southern Lebanon on Thursday morning, allegedly in violation of the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, writes Sky News.

Israeli soldiers opened fire on them and a security source says two people have been injured.

Lebanon to elect a new president – ​​vacant since 2022

The Lebanese parliament will elect a new president on January 9, Speaker Nabih Berri told state news agency NNA, according to AFP.

The announcement comes after the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel came into effect on the night of Wednesday. The country's prime minister has previously called for a quick election of a new president.

After Michel Aoun left the post in October 2022, the parliament has failed to appoint a successor.
 
The Gaza war
"Netanyahu may have given Gaza promise to the extreme right"

Experts are skeptical about the prospects for peace in Gaza. Palestinian political scientist Mkhaimar Abusada tells the New York Times that there is "no light at the end of Gaza's dark tunnel".

- I really don't think that the ceasefire in Lebanon will have any impact on Gaza, says Abusada, who himself is on the run from his home in Gaza City.

Hugh Lovatt, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, says in an interview with SvD that the outlook for Gaza has probably worsened. He assesses that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised the extreme right in his coalition to continue pursuing a hard line in Gaza and the West Bank in exchange for support for the ceasefire with Hezbollah.

The analyst Michael Koplow is also aware that with the settlement, Netanyahu has spent a significant part of his political capital on appeasing the government base.

- If anything, this will cause them to increase the pressure on him even more not to ease the pressure on Hamas in ways that they would consider premature.
 

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