Doubts on US aid if Putin goes too far

 

Martin Mederyd Hårdh/TT

 

Published 06.37

          

         Former president and EU commissioner Dalia Grybauskaite thinks the Baltics and the Nordic                     countries should rely more on each other – and Ukraine. Here she speaks to TT in connection with a           conference outside Stockholm this week. Photo: Anders Wiklund/TT

Arson, cyberattacks and drones on the wrong path. Russia is said to be stepping up provocations around the Baltic Sea to test the borders.

Will the US send soldiers if a border is crossed?

– I don't know, says Lithuania's former president Dalia Grybauskaite.

Last week, an arms manufacturer in Estonia was subjected to an arson attack. That Russia is behind it is a "very, very real scenario", according to Estonia's Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.

In recent weeks, the governments of the Baltic states and Poland have sounded the alarm that Russia wants to step up provocations. The Russians are constantly trying to find out where the line is – how high the threshold is for NATO's Article Five, Pevkur tells TT.

– But we also have to keep calm in order to be able to distinguish between a real military attack, where we really need to activate NATO's Article Four or Five, and Russia's prodding at us where they test how we react, if we get nervous.

Warning ahead of the election

According to intelligence that is leaking out, there are fears of shadowy attacks on a larger scale, but also more obvious border violations.

Russia wants to shake up the countries so that they reconsider their support for Ukraine, assesses Hanno Pevkur, who warns ahead of the upcoming elections.

– Sweden has elections in a few weeks, Latvia has elections in October and Estonia in March. We are entering a period of six to eight months where the threats in our region will increase.

They are constantly looking for people who are willing to help, including in Sweden, warns the minister.

Russian provocations are also believed to be intended to test NATO, for example if the US hesitates in a critical situation. Pevkur says he trusts Estonia's strongest ally.

Help from Ukraine?

One of the Baltics' most experienced politicians is not so sure. Dalia Grybauskaite, former Lithuanian president and EU commissioner, doubts that the US will send more troops if the situation gets worse. She describes NATO's Article 5 as more of an "invitation" to help.

The Nordic and Baltic countries need to deepen military cooperation in the region with regional agreements, the Lithuanian believes.

- The most important thing we need from the US is intelligence. When it comes to defense on the ground, it should be our own, that of our closest friends and also that of the Ukrainians, says Grybauskaite.

- If there is a direct war with Russia, I am convinced that Ukraine will come and help us.

“Don’t overreact”

As president, Dalia Grybauskaite sounded the alarm early on about Russia’s intentions, especially after a tense meeting with Vladimir Putin in 2010. He had a list of demands on Lithuania. She said no.

– You can be subjected to any kind of provocation from a desperate and imperialist neighbor, but it’s about our own endurance, our courage and our reaction. Not to overreact, and to believe in our own defense capabilities.

Facts

Article Five

The fifth article of the NATO Treaty is usually seen as the cornerstone of the military alliance: an attack on one member state constitutes an attack on all 32. It is worded as follows:

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all, and consequently the Parties agree that each Party (. . .) in the event of such an armed attack shall assist the Party or Parties attacked by taking, individually and in concert with the other Parties, without delay such measures as it considers necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic area.”

Reference is made to Article 51 of the UN Charter, which states that all countries have the right to “individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack.”