Sunak a "dead man walking" - needs miracles

Columnists 

 

Rishi Sunak  

 

He is a "dead man walking"  

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Updated 21.13 | Published 21.00  

 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has the decision in his own hand. At the same time, his time is up.  

 

New elections must be held within the next 15 months.  

 

The opinion polls show that Sunak is a "dead man walking" regardless of the time.  

 

After Sunak's recent government reshuffle and the Supreme Court's decision to stop the government's plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, speculation increased about when he intends to call new elections.  

 

The rules state that it must take place no later than January 28, 2025, but few believe that Sunak will choose to wait that long.  

 

The problem is the historically low opinion figures for the Conservative Party. Had an election been held today, the Tories would lose by over 20 percentage points to main rival Labour.  

 

Recently, by-elections were held in some traditionally strong conservative strongholds where the party made historically poor results.  

 

Risks becoming a parenthesis 

 

There are many indications that the Conservatives may be headed for an election loss of the same dimensions as in 1997 when Tony Blair led Labor to a landslide victory.  

 

Whatever Sunak does, in other words, he risks becoming a bracket as British Prime Minister. He took office last autumn after a turbulent few months when Boris Johnson was forced out and successor Liz Truss had to resign after a record short time in office.  

 

There are many indications that the conservatives may be headed for an election loss of the same dimensions as in 1997. Photo: Stefan Jerrevång

 

In other words, Sunak is not elected by the British people, only as an emergency solution by the Conservative Party.  

 

Now his tactical dexterity is put to the test. By timing the new election perfectly, can he succeed in reversing a seemingly inevitable defeat?  

 

Unsurprisingly, the experts' tips vary.  

 

Pull the carpet away  

 

Some are convinced that Sunak intends to try to exploit the migration issue. He knows that the British people want an end to illegal immigration, which nowadays mainly takes place via small smuggling boats across the English Channel. In order to stop the traffic, Sunak wants those who come that way to be automatically sent to Rwanda to have their asylum application tried there.  

 

He believes that will pull the rug out from the people smugglers' business model.  

 

Although the Supreme Court has temporarily put an end to that plan, Sunak is already in the process of presenting new legislation that would round off the court's decision.  

 

Such a tactic could speak for a new election as early as May next year. It is the time of the year when the British prefer to go to the polls.  

 

On the other hand, the conservative government has ruled the country for a long time without managing to overcome migration. Despite the fact that they had it as one of their main election promises. So the question is what confidence they have with the voters on that point.  

 

Historical mistake  

 

The economy has also been a mourner ever since Brexit was implemented. The Conservatives promised Britain gold and green forests if only the country managed to wriggle out of Brussels' grip and take back control of its own affairs.  

 

The reality was the opposite.  

 

But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. The strong inflation is on the way down, which in the long run may lead to falling interest rates and lower costs for British mortgage borrowers. But it takes time for the effects to be felt. Which suggests that Sunak instead chooses to hold new elections in September or October. 

 

He can of course wait until January 28, 2025 to hope that the situation in the economy will have brightened further by then. The problem is that the election campaign would then be held during Christmas and New Year. Something the politicians know the British people detest. 

 

Historically, too, it has proven to be a mistake to wait until the last moment to call for new elections. Both Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher had new elections held earlier than they needed. With successful results.  

 

Need a miracle  

 

Boris Johnson, on the other hand, showed that it is also possible to win an election in December when he won big in 2019 on the promise "to get Brexit done".  

 

The government reshuffle in which Sunak fired the controversial home secretary Suella Braverman and brought in former prime minister David Cameron as foreign secretary is seen as a way of trying to strengthen the party's appeal to centrist voters. But it takes more than that.  

 

Sunak needs a minor miracle for him to be able to turn the tide of opinion regardless of when within the next 15 months the election is held.  

 

He and his party are simply in such bad shape that the best tactic may be to wait and hope that something will happen to change the game. 

 

Because at the moment there is nothing to suggest that Rishi Sunak will survive as Prime Minister after the next election.

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