There will be an outcry among Trump voters

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American politics 

 

The sedition clause – new way to try to stop Trump Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

Published 16.33 

Photo: Nora Savosnick 

 

With one year left until the US presidential election, new attempts are underway to stop ex-president Donald Trump from running at all. 

 

Probably the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the Republican nominee.  

 

But even Joe Biden is challenged.  

 

A trial is underway this week that could have far-reaching consequences for next year's presidential election.  

 

Six Colorado voters have gone to court to disqualify Donald Trump from running. They refer to the 14th Amendment to the Constitution where Section Three states that anyone who incites sedition cannot hold federal office.  

 

They argue that Trump's Jan. 6, 2021, speech preceding the storming of the Capitol constitutes such a call. 

 

Should they be right, it means that Donald Trump's name cannot be on the ballots in Colorado for the presidential election in November 2024.
 

Similar processes are underway in Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire. More may become relevant.  

 

This is an entirely new threat to Trump's candidacy that has nothing to do with the four legal cases in which he is accused of variously trying to change the outcome of the 2020 election and illegally handling secret documents after his term in office had ended.  

 

The lawsuits in Colorado and several states are an expression of how parts of the electorate see Trump as a danger to the United States. They want to try in every way to prevent the real estate billionaire from regaining presidential power.   

 

The question, however, is how wise it is.  

 

Preventing Trump from running would lead to an outcry among his supporters and even risk violence. 
 

The 14th Amendment came into being after the Civil War in the 1800s to stop Southern candidates from being elected to Congress. It has never been tried in this capacity. 

  

Regardless of which side prevails in the lower courts, legal experts in the United States agree that the case will end up in the Supreme Court. There is a clear conservative majority of 6-3, of which three of the judges were appointed by Donald Trump. 

  

A premonition of the chaos that risks characterizing the next presidential election.  

 

There are still no start dates for the four indictments against Trump, but there are many indications that one or more trials will begin in the spring.  

 

At the same time that Trump is to conduct an election campaign, he is forced to appear in court. It will likely be there that Trump will conduct his campaign. The trials will attract enormous media attention.  

 

The question is what happens if the Trumps are sentenced to prison. Although there is no clear prohibition in the constitution to run for president if one is sitting in the finka, half of the United States legal profession will try to find arguments that will make it possible to stop Trump. While the other half makes the opposite argument. 

 

Given the appeals, any convictions against Trump are unlikely to become final until after the election. And what happens then if Trump moves into the White House again? 
 

The only case where Trump cannot pardon himself is the Georgia lawsuit because it is state and not federal. 

 

There is already a trial going on against Trump because he greatly exaggerated the valuation of his company in order to get more favorable loans.  

 

For this, Trump risks heavy fines and, in the worst case, losing the right to operate a business in New York, where his company is based.  

 

Curiously, the web of lawsuits involving Trump does not seem to have had much of an impact on voters. If anything, Trump's support has increased in opinion polls ahead of the primaries that start in January. There, it is decided who will be the Republican candidate in 2024. 

 

However, Trump's lead is so large that it would take a landslide within the electorate for him not to win.  

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, previously seen as a dangerous contender, has more or less imploded in the polls. Trump's Vice President Mike Pence has already pulled out due to poor poll numbers and a lack of money.  

 
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is the only one who has greatly improved her opinion figures. Nevertheless, she is only around 15 percent, roughly on par with De Santis. It will take a lot for her to become a real threat to her former boss. 

 

Not even Joe Biden can calmly sit back.  

 

Recently, the relatively unknown Democratic congressman Dean Philips from Minnesota announced that he is challenging Biden on the grounds that he is too old and risks losing to Trump.  

 

Philips has no chance, but reminds voters of the issue Biden wants to discuss least of all. His own age.  

 

Robert F Kennedy Jr is another headache. He is running as an independent candidate and has no chance. But there is a risk that he will pick a few percent from Biden, which in even states, due to the design of the American electoral system, could be enough to set the hook for Biden. 

 

It is speculated that some Republican will also run as an independent candidate to make it difficult for Trump. Liz Cheney could be one.  

 

You can accuse American politics of too much, but it is not boring.