Panic in Europe – but the plan may fall flat

Russia
Not at all certain that there will be a peace agreement

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.

Published 21.38

Quick version

• A peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia requires the approval of both Ukraine and Europe in order to be implemented and maintained by peacekeeping forces.
• The US expects Europe to provide peacekeeping troops, but without security guarantees Europe is unwilling to participate.
• Ongoing negotiations may fail if both Europe and Ukraine are not included and their red lines are taken into account, with the risk that an agreement will benefit Russia without achieving sustainable peace.

FRANKFURT. In the current security policy panic, many are running ahead of events.

It sounds like a peace agreement is already in practice.

But it is not at all certain that there will be anything.

           

          Wolfgang Hansson: “A peace on Putin’s terms”

It is certainly good to be prepared, but before there can be any talk of sending any troops to Ukraine, there must be a completed peace agreement accepted by both Ukraine and Russia.

If Ukraine says no to what Trump and Putin might agree on behind closed doors, nothing will happen. The same applies if Europe says no.

The US does not intend to provide any peacekeeping troops, but expects Europe to do so. If Europe refuses, nothing will happen.

 

Much of the panic is about both the US and Russia saying that there is no place for Europe at the negotiating table. Perhaps not for Ukraine either.

This is of course alarming in its own way. But the question is how to interpret the statements that have been made so far. What does a place at the negotiating table actually mean?

If you look at how the Gaza ceasefire negotiations have been handled, Israel and Hamas have had no direct contact with each other at all.

The mediators talk to the parties individually and then present proposals that both sides react to. Until something is reached that both sides can accept.

As for Ukraine, the first initial talks will be held between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia in the next few days. With delegations.

Sergeij Lavrov och USA:s Marco Rubio i Saudiarabien de närmaste dagarna. Med delegationer.

         

       

        US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Saudi Arabia for peace talks.

        1 / 2Photo: AP

Threat to withdraw support

Depending on how far they get, Trump and Putin will then meet for what sounds to Trump like several individual meetings.

At some stage, probably quite early on, both Ukraine and Europe will have to be asked whether they physically have a seat at the negotiating table or not.

It is practically impossible to arrange an end to the war without Ukraine being involved. They can only continue fighting. Trump can threaten to withdraw all support. In that case, Europe will increase its support.

It is practically impossible to arrange peacekeeping forces that will ensure that the agreement is actually followed if Europe does not comply with the conditions.

Which country wants to send a few thousand soldiers to Ukraine if it risks ending up in war with Russia?

Europe will demand some form of security guarantees for sending soldiers. Either that they are covered by NATO's Article Five or that the US guarantees their security in some other way.

So completely excluding Ukraine and Europe from the negotiations is simply not possible.

There is of course a great risk that Trump, who seems to be in a hurry, and Putin will agree on a bad deal for Ukraine and for Europe's future security. But such a deal will not be implemented unless both Ukraine and Europe approve it.

Donald Trump has said that the US will not provide peacekeeping troops. Photo: AP

Red lines

Therefore, the chances of achieving success in negotiations will be greater if Trump consults his European allies and Ukraine as soon as possible. Then he will know where their respective red lines lie. Otherwise, there is a risk that a settlement will fall flat on the ground.

One can also ask what Putin's goal is with the talks. Even though he has lost somewhere around 200,000-250,000 men, it is Russia that has the momentum in the war. Slowly but surely, more Ukrainian territory is being subjugated. Why would he want peace now that he has not achieved the goal of subjugating all of Ukraine?

His goal is probably a pause in fighting rather than a sustainable peace. Lick the wounds. Build up the army again and then start fighting again in a few years.

Neither Ukraine nor Europe is interested in such a peace settlement. That is why EU leaders have so far dismissed the idea of ​​negotiations with Putin.

Everyone wants the war to end, but it must not happen at any cost, seen through Ukrainian and European eyes.

It is possible that Trump is a skilled negotiator. But there are also countless examples of when he has failed miserably.

The most important is when he agreed to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong-un for several summits. Trump's goal was clear. North Korea would get rid of all its nuclear weapons and the ability to build new ones. In return, the country would receive economic aid and be exempt from sanctions.

            

          

          Polish soldiers along the border with Belarus.

          1 / 2Photo: AP

Sanctions don't work

We saw how it went.

The result was of zero and no value. Except for Kim Jong-un, who was suddenly let into the heat for a while.

The US says that economic and military pressure can be used to force Putin into an agreement.

Unless Trump intends to send a cruise missile to the Kremlin, I don't really know how it will work.

For almost three years, Europe and the US have imposed record-breaking sanctions on Russia. They have even seized half of the country's foreign exchange reserves. But Putin is still waging war.

The economic sanctions are not working because China, India, NATO member Turkey and much of the rest of the world are helping Russia circumvent them.

I believe that the risk is very high that there will be no deal. Or that it will be so bad that both Ukraine and Europe will refuse.

Then Trump will be left with another failure that not even his slander can turn into a success.