The battle for France makes Europe tremble

 

Wiktor Nummelin/TT

 

Published 05:45 | Updated 10:39

 

Far-right Marine Le Pen and far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon have both campaigned in several French presidential elections. Now, they hope to face each other in the runoff next year. File photo from the 2022 election. Photo: Bob Edme/AP/TT

Europe faces a French revolution as the political extremes pull ahead in the race for the presidency.

The winner may simply be the candidate who is the least unpopular.

For those within the EU and NATO hoping for peace, quiet, and stability, the French election campaign has so far been the stuff of nightmares.

Leading the polls by a wide margin is far-right Marine Le Pen, who wants to slash funding to the EU by half and halt economic aid to Ukraine.

Hot on her heels is far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who wants to withdraw from NATO entirely and demands that the European Central Bank write off France's national debt.

Close behind, centrist candidate Gabriel Attal is campaigning to seriously create a "United States of Europe"—an idea that might appeal to some Brussels officials but runs counter to the views of the majority of EU member states.

Anger at Macron

The fact that the extremes are attracting the most support is due in no small part to disappointment following nearly ten years of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. He was elected on a promise to be neither right nor left, yet has instead been accused by both sides of being one or the other at different times. The economy and reform efforts have stalled due to the Covid crisis, the war in Ukraine, and a deeply divided parliament.

Significantly, both Le Pen and Mélenchon are now promising to lower the retirement age ahead of the election—a move that makes economists and lenders sigh heavily.

At a time when other candidates on both the right and the left are struggling with low poll numbers, many still expect a completely new candidate to emerge, just as Macron did in 2016. Back then, he waited until November—only five months before the election—to formally launch his campaign, even though there had long been speculation about his ambitions.
Want to face each other

Le Pen and Mélenchon, however, are pleased. They view each other as their ideal opponents for a decisive runoff. Otherwise, they risk facing someone who might not have as many supporters as they do, but who is—conversely—less unpopular.

The "anti-vote" is perhaps the election's strongest contender.

"The winner won't be the most liked candidate, but the one who is least disliked," political scientist Jean-Yves Dormagen tells the Belgian newspaper *Le Soir*.

Facts

2027 French Presidential Election

France will hold its presidential election on April 18, 2027, with a decisive second round on May 2.

Here are some of the top contenders:

Marine Le Pen, 58, candidate for the far-right National Rally party. Running for the fourth time.

Gabriel Attal, 37, leader of Macron’s centrist party Renaissance and a former prime minister in his government. Édouard Philippe, 55, leader of the centrist party Horizons and mayor of Le Havre. Former prime minister in Macron’s government.

Bruno Retailleau, 65, leader of the right-wing party The Republicans.

Raphaël Glucksmann, 46, Member of the European Parliament, tipped to be the candidate for the united left.

François Hollande, 72, MP for the Socialist Party and former president (2012–2017). Has not officially announced his candidacy.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 74, leader of the far-left party France Unbowed. Running for the fourth time.

Source: Le Monde, Le Figaro, and others.

Facts

French presidents over the last 50 years

The following men have led France since Charles de Gaulle resigned in 1969:

1969–74: Georges Pompidou

1974–81: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing

1981–95: François Mitterrand

1995–2007: Jacques Chirac

2007–12: Nicolas Sarkozy

2012–17: François Hollande

2017–: Emmanuel Macron