Brazil’s Presidential Election

Poll: A nail-biter in store for the Brazilian election

Incumbent President Lula da Silva is closing the gap on right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of this weekend’s presidential election in Brazil, Reuters reports. According to the latest opinion polls, everything points to a much tighter race than recent figures had suggested.

Bolsonaro has long held a lead of two to three percentage points in the polls—which would equate to as many as three million votes—but according to the polling firm Nexus, which surveyed 2,000 voters, the gap may have recently narrowed to less than one percent.

AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, which also conducted a poll, indicates that Bolsonaro still maintains a lead of a few percentage points; however, their survey also shows that Lula da Silva has made significant gains over the past few days.

Analysis: How many dare to reveal who they intend to vote for?

Flávio Bolsonaro and the right-wing camp may have been so confident of victory that they lost their grip on the campaign, with only days left until the election. This is the assessment of CNN political reporter Pedro Venceslau, writing ahead of this weekend’s presidential election in Brazil.

The right, he argues, has been more preoccupied with speculating about a future government than with chasing the votes necessary to secure it. Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party has opted for a different tactic. In recent days, they have pushed through a series of proposals—described by some as populist—including a shorter work week and free public transport on weekends. In da Silva’s camp, meanwhile, the primary concern seems to be the extent to which they should trust the opinion polls. Four years ago, there was already a significant discrepancy between the polls and the actual election results. The intense political polarization in the country may mean that many people still do not feel comfortable revealing where they stand.

On Sunday evening, Bolsonaro and da Silva faced off in a televised debate. Writing for *Valor*, Maria Cristina Fernandes notes that Lula needed to win this encounter to improve his prospects—but, she observes, he failed to do so.