Vladimir Putin
This is how Putin punished a pro-Western neighbor
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published at 6:15 p.m
Columnists
Many interpret what must have been the world's shortest war as a sign of weakness for Vladimir Putin.
An at least as reasonable interpretation is that Putin wanted to punish a pro-Western leader and therefore refrained from intervening to help him.
When Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive in the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday, it could have gone one of two ways.
Azeri dictator Ilham Aliyev saw an opportunity to advance positions while Russia is fully engaged in Ukraine and took advantage of it.
However, the timing and the rapid course of events suggest that he first received a tacit approval from Moscow.
Russian peacekeeping forces near Stepanakert in Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: AP
The mini-war broke out just as the world's leaders gathered for the big UN summit in New York, where the Ukraine war and strong condemnations of Russia were at the top of the agenda.
The 24-hour war served as a perfect distraction for Putin. The focus ended up on a completely different conflict than Ukraine. The world leaders tripped over each other in their eagerness to demand a quick cease-fire in the fighting in the South Caucasus.
The Ukraine war did not receive nearly the same attention as at the UN meeting a year ago.
I have seen many analyzes where the brief war in Nagorno-Karabakh is interpreted as Russia being so stretched in Ukraine that Putin simply did not have the capacity to send reinforcements to the enclave. I don't think that's where you find the main explanation why Russia didn't act more forcefully to stop Azerbaijan's offensive.
Practiced with the US
Since the last war three years ago, Russia has 2,000 troops in the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh tasked with keeping the peace in the territory that belongs to Azerbaijan, which Armenia recognized earlier this year, but is populated mainly by Armenians.
It is clear that the Russian troops did not do much to stop the Azeri attack. Moreover, earlier this year, the Azeri military was allowed to set up roadblocks in the Latjin Corridor, the only route through which food and other supplies can be transported into the one-calf from Armenia, without intervention. Which led to difficult humanitarian conditions for the 120,000 Armenians living in the encalf.
Something I interpret as Putin wanting to punish Armenia's popularly elected Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for flirting too much with the West and at the same time sending a signal to the West not to try to use the war in Ukraine to lure yet another former Soviet republic into the NATO camp.
Armenian soldiers recently trained together with American ones in Armenia.
Shortly before the latest outbreak of war, the Prime Minister of Armenia went out in interviews in the Western media and announced that his country could no longer rely solely on Russia as a guarantor of its security.
Nothing Putin wanted to hear.
War crimes
The country decided a few weeks ago to start the process of ratifying the Rome Statute. It would ultimately force Armenia to arrest Vladimir Putin, who is wanted for war crimes, should he visit Armenia.
Putin also did not appreciate that Pashinyan's wife recently visited Kiev and delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine while meeting with President Zelensky.
There were plenty of reasons why Armenia's ambassador in Moscow was recently called up for a scrap.
In the past, Russia has always stood up for Armenia and its right to protect the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. A conflict that blossomed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
After the Azeri successes this week, strong protests have broken out in Armenia against Prime Minister Pashinyan, who may find it difficult to get re-elected. Nothing Putin would cry about.
It seems that for strategic reasons Putin wants to get closer to the much richer Azerbaijan and try to drive a wedge between the West and dictator Aliyev. Azerbaijan buys significantly more weapons from Russia than Armenia and is otherwise a much more promising export market for Russian products.
Do not fear Moscow
When Russia turned the gas tap last year and more or less stopped exports to Europe, the West turned, among other things, to Azerbaijan, which is rich in both gas and oil. Among other things, thanks to that gas import, an energy crisis in Europe could be avoided this past winter.
Ahead of the coming winter, Europe is once again dependent to some extent on gas deliveries from Azerbaijan.
Of course, Russia's war in Ukraine means that it is more difficult to simultaneously maintain its role as police in all the conflicts that periodically flare up in the former Soviet Empire. Above all, the Russian fiasco in Ukraine means that other former Soviet republics no longer have the same trust or fear of Moscow.
But Putin's whole dream of restoring Russia's great power status to its former Soviet glory is based on him being able to dominate his neighbors and stop defectors to the West, as he has done with Georgia, among other things, and is now desperately trying to do with Ukraine.
It is no coincidence that the last fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh was over in less than two days. The last war lasted 44 days. We can only speculate on the game behind the scenes, but it is likely that Putin made a strategic decision to pinch Armenia on the nose in order to gain benefits from Azerbaijan instead.
Not necessarily a sign of weakness.
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