Putin the winner when the alliance is cracking at the seams
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the author's.
Published 14.02
Quick version
- The alliance between the US and Europe is very shaky after the security conference and is affected by Donald Trump's unwillingness to let Europe participate in negotiations with Russia.
- Vladimir Putin has managed to break the transatlantic unity, which increases his influence, without having to act directly.
- Trump demands that Europe increase its defense spending and participate in peacekeeping operations around Ukraine without providing guaranteed security commitments from the US.
MUNICH. When the smoke from the security conference has settled, it can be seen that the alliance between the US and Europe is hanging by a thread. Maybe only for four years. Maybe forever.
The real winner after this weekend's meeting was not even there.
He is sitting in Moscow and his name is Vladimir Putin.
The same Putin who, when he was at the meeting in 2007, angrily criticized NATO's expansion into countries that were part of the collapsed Soviet Union's sphere of influence.
That time, the West didn't really take him seriously. A year later, he invaded Georgia. In 2014, he took Crimea and started a war in eastern Ukraine. Three years ago, he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Things haven't gone so well on the battlefield, but geopolitically, the past week has been a major leap forward for Russia.
Donald Trump has broken Putin's isolation and next week the Russian and US foreign ministers will meet in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a plan to end the war in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will probably meet quite shortly after that.
Without even lifting a finger, Putin has managed to drive another wedge between those who are supposed to represent allies, Europe and the US.
Trump does not want to give Europe a place at the negotiating table. This is exactly according to Putin's wishes. He wants to negotiate over Europe's head and make a direct deal with the US. Perhaps in the form of the Cold War division into different spheres of interest.
The normal thing would have been for the US and Europe to first agree on a common strategy before any negotiations begin.
While Trump is shutting out Europe, he expects the continent to finance and militarily monitor a possible ceasefire.
Strong
In plain language, this means that Europe should have no say in what peace should look like but should foot the bill in the form of money and soldiers.
It is a rather strong demand from the American president. The starting point is that the European peacekeeping force will not receive any security guarantees from the United States.
Europe's leaders are trying to recover from the stark blow. French President Macron has taken the initiative for an emergency meeting with the leaders of some of Europe's most powerful states. Perhaps as early as tomorrow.
The goal is to push harder for demands against Trump to give Europe a place at the negotiating table. The message will be delivered by Britain's Keir Starmer, who will visit Trump at the White House later this week.
"Donald Trump has broken Putin's isolation," writes Wolfgang Hansson. Photo: Alexander Kazakov / AP
The question, however, is whether Europe has enough good negotiating cards up its sleeve to be able to persuade the president.
Ukraine is also getting a taste of Trump's neo-colonial methods when he demands that the country give up half of its minerals as payment for US support. Zelensky has rejected the first offer.
How big will the rift be?
Imagine how different the world looks just a month after Trump took power. The transatlantic alliance that has dominated the entire post-war era now definitely seems to be on the verge of collapse. It's just a matter of how big the rift will be.
I'm not thinking primarily of provocative statements by Vice President Vance about Europe's lack of democracy and freedom of expression. Or that he would rather meet with the far-right AfD leader Alice Weidel than Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
It's about something much more fundamental than that. About the security order that has preserved peace in Europe from the end of World War II until February 24, 2022.
The US believed that defending peace in Europe was in their security interests. Even if it cost money.
Trump only looks at the economy. He gives a shit about Europe.
He is right that Europe has neglected its own defense because it has had the US at its back. Now it is obvious to everyone that countries in Europe must invest more in their defense. That process has already started. A large majority of NATO countries are now reaching two percent of GDP, which is the floor NATO has agreed on.
Now Trump is quickly raising it to five percent, even though not even the US is close to that. There is no such NATO decision either. A new floor will probably be set at the NATO summit in The Hague this summer.
A hair-raising proposal
Almost all European states are already focused on increasing defense spending to at least three percent over time.Yet Trump and his ministers continue to attack Europe for paying too little. On top of that, he is starting a trade war.
It certainly feels like Trump is trying to pick a fight with what were the US's best friends a month ago.
However, it is too early to throw in the towel on the transatlantic friendship. Trump will only be in office for four years. In addition, his shock therapy may be partly a tactic.
He often puts forward hair-raising proposals just to wait for reactions. Then he adjusts his positions based on these. It is not certain that the last word has been said, for example, on Europe's exclusion from the negotiating table.
On the whole, it is still positive that Trump is trying to break the deadlock over Ukraine in a situation where it looks impossible for Kiev to win the war even with help from the West. The only thing that matters is to achieve a peace that does not encourage Putin to continue his conquest. It will not be easy.
Because for now, Putin is the winner. But in the long run, it is hopefully Ukraine and Europe that will win together with the United States.
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