And his warnings to Europe and the US are serious.
The president says that intelligence indicates that Russia is building up troops and conducting military exercises in Belarus – in the same way as before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Polish soldiers along the border with Belarus. Photo: AP
"An invasion will happen"
- We know for sure that he is planning an invasion from Belarus this year. It could be at the beginning or end of the summer. I don't know when, but it will happen, Zelensky tells NBC.
He means that this time it is probably not about another attempt to take over all of Ukraine. Now, Zelensky believes, Russia is planning an invasion of another country that belonged to the former Soviet Union or its allies.
- There is a risk that it could be Poland or Lithuania because we suspect, we suspect that Putin will fight a war against NATO, says the Ukrainian president.
Zelensky is asked whether Ukraine has actual intelligence that Putin is planning military actions specifically against NATO.
Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference. Photo: NTB
Exercises in Belarus
– No. We have intelligence, we have documents that show that they are preparing military exercises with a large number of soldiers on Belarusian territory. And we want to share with you that there is a high risk that he will do the same thing again, the president tells NBC.
– Maybe not. I hope to God that he will not. And maybe President Trump and his allies can stop him before then. But I think we have to be prepared to be able to stop it, so that it will not be a surprise if he does what he did during the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
He and Ukraine are in a more difficult situation than they have been in a long time since the change of power in the United States.
This week, the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that it is unrealistic that a peace settlement would mean that Ukraine would get back all the territory it lost since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Photo: AP
Meetings in Saudi Arabia
He also dismissed the possibility that the country could join NATO.
At the same time, Donald Trump has spoken at length and confidentially with Putin and announced that delegations from the US and Russia will meet and discuss Ukraine's fate in Saudi Arabia.
On Sunday evening, Zelenskyy stated that he had landed in the United Arab Emirates for an official state visit.
According to AFP, Zelenskyy has stated that he will also visit Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the coming days - although he previously announced that he has no plans to meet the Russian or American delegations there.
Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Photo: AP
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine Expert: "Trump has no fucking idea how this will end"
Joachim Kerpner
Published 2025-02-16 22.06
Quick version
The peace negotiations on Ukraine are unfavorable for Ukraine and
Western Europe, as the United States adopts Russia's positions and opens
up for economic cooperation with Russia, despite its economic problems.
Donald Trump's strategy may be to weaken ties between Russia and China,
but the United States is also exerting pressure on Ukraine regarding
arms exports and resource allocations.
Russia sees the opportunity to appear peace-loving but has historically not adhered to agreements.
The game plan for the peace negotiations on Ukraine points to Russia's advantage.
This is according to Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius:
- Trump may get his deal, but he has no fucking idea where this will end, says Dixelius.
Wolfgang Hansson: “Then Sweden can send troops to Ukraine”
2:59
In a short time, the US has approached Russia's position by leaps and bounds and publicly declared that Ukraine can neither count on returning to its 2014 borders nor membership in NATO. Donald Trump has even welcomed Russia back to the G7 group, which includes the world's leading industrial countries.
"Played a lot of cards"
- This redraws the entire playing field in a way that disadvantages Ukraine and Western Europe. It is worrying that so many cards have been played before even starting negotiations and that they are negotiating with the aggressor as if it were a two-party war. The Americans have stepped away from the idea that Europe has had all along, that "this is a war of aggression and we will not talk to the aggressor until he is on his knees", says Malcolm Dixelius.
Donald Trump. Photo: AP
- The third thing that is lousy timing is that Russia is in a bad situation economically. Russia is a small country economically, smaller than Italy, and has huge problems with inflation. The state lives mainly on income from the sale of oil and gas. And that income has dried up. Now the Americans say they want to resume economic cooperation. It's like Russia is being saved by the gong when they risk losing points.
What do you think Trump is thinking?
– I've thought about it quite a bit. He possibly sees in his mind that he can weaken the ties between Russia and China. He has a comprehensive view of the world. Europe is just a problem, China is the real enemy. If the US makes a deal with Russia and helps them lift the sanctions, he might think that the US will in that way weaken China's claim to power in a world perspective.
Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius.
He wants to make a deal with Ukraine too, get half of their mineral resources.
– Of course, but there the situation is that he can pressure them. The US can exert all kinds of pressure on Ukraine, including preventing Europeans from exporting weapons containing American parts to the country. Then it will be forbidden to export Swedish fighter jets to the Ukrainians. There are any number of means of pressure on Ukraine, it is the weaker party.
Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP
How will the peace talks end? Surely there are reasons for Russia to continue the war because it is going well for them?
– Russia would prefer to have the option to behave like Israel. They want the possibility to continue and fight, but get the benefits of appearing to be peace-loving. Make it look like it is Europe and Ukraine that want war and they want peace. Trump and Putin would love to sit in Oslo and share the Nobel Peace Prize.
“Cunning as hell”
– But the devil is in the details. Trump may get his deal, but he has no fucking idea where this will end. He wants to get into it to show action. But he has one of the world's most cunning foreign ministers against him, Sergei Lavrov. And he has a cunning KGB bandit against him, the Russian president. They are cunning as hell. They will exploit the advantage they have on the ground in Ukraine to the maximum. Then Europe will of course have to enter at a later stage in the negotiations. But by then the worst damage may already be done.
If there is a peace settlement – will Putin stick to it?
– No, absolutely not. He will have his own interpretation of it regardless of how it goes. Since 1975, people have tried to tame Moscow with negotiations. It has not worked. They have promised lots of things that they do not do. They have promised to give up Abkhazia. They have promised to give up Transnistria. And they promised back in 1994 to respect Ukraine's borders if they got Ukraine's nuclear weapons.
Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference. Photo: AP
Will Zelensky say no if Ukraine gets a bad peace settlement?
– Then we have to go back to Finland in 1940. What did they do? They took the deal they got. They had to give up land to the Soviet Union, but they got to keep their freedom. It will be a Finnish peace of some kind.
– My experience of Ukraine is that they are quite similar to the Finns. They are bullheaded. It is a hell of a feat to keep the great power Russia at bay for three years with an army where the average age is 42.
Will the Ukrainian people accept a bad peace settlement?
– They are refined. They are prepared for it, I think. They say that “we have to adjust according to the situation”. They have been doing that for 300 years, since the time of Peter the Great, says Malcolm Dixelius.
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