Iran expert: “Extremely sensitive situation”

Jenny Martorell

Updated 19.03 | Published 15.38      

 

          

 

         Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi.

Bridges, railways and the important oil island of Kharg have been bombed in a new wave of attacks on Iran – hours before the US deadline.

The attacks can be seen as a way to pressure the Iranian regime, according to experts.

– We are in an extremely sensitive situation right now, says Iran expert Alexander Atarodi.

On Monday, Donald Trump gave Iran a deadline of 02:00 on Wednesday night, Swedish time. If the regime has not opened the Strait of Hormuz by then, “we will blow up the whole country”, was the threat from the US president.

Now, hours before the US deadline, several military and civilian targets have exploded around Iran, including on the oil island of Kharg that Trump has threatened to “destroy”. An American source confirms to Axios that the US is behind the attacks.

The reason for Tuesday’s escalation is that the White House wants to get Iran to approve an agreement that the US can accept, according to Jan Hallenberg, a security policy expert at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Policy.

– They want to increase the pressure on Iran to bend. They will get a taste of what will happen later, he says.       

 

Jan Hallenberg, security policy expert at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Policy. Photo: Jessica Gow / TT

Tactical press

Alexander Atarodi, independent Middle East expert, is on a similar track:

– We don’t know if this is the start of destroying everything. It could be tactical pressure on the Iranian regime to accept some kind of deal, he says.

Kharg has been bombed before by the US, he notes. Then it was military targets that were attacked and not the oil facilities. That is the case this time too, military sources tell Axios.

– In any case, it is obvious that we are in an extremely sensitive situation right now. It seems very likely that both sides have positions that are very far apart, says Alexander Atarodi.

Does not rule out an agreement

According to him, Iran's response could be to try to put further pressure on the Gulf countries. If the US and Iran do not manage to reach a solution by the deadline, the situation on Wednesday will be completely different.

– If this war becomes even more extensive than it is today, and it is difficult to see that it can be, the price of oil could be 150-200 dollars. There is also a risk that the Gulf countries can no longer just watch.

Despite the escalation and the many threats, some kind of deal before the deadline is not out of the question, Alexander Atarodi emphasizes. The parties have each delivered a draft to each other, which is a far cry from the situation just a few weeks ago when talks were not even on the table.

– Now, with the help of the mediators, we have a draft of something. Even if it does not cover everyone's needs, there is still a chance for a deal, says Alexander Atarodi.