US pressure on Iran – that's why Trump can escalate

TT

Published 17.02

          

          

         US President Donald Trump has on a number of occasions set deadlines for Iran. He has also                       repeatedly postponed them.
         1 / 2Photo: Alex Brandon/AP/TT

Time and again, Trump has issued ultimatums to Iran. And with that, the risk of further escalation also increases.

- The biggest lesson to be learned is that states often escalate into war when they fail to achieve their stated goals, says Middle East expert Anders Persson to TT.

All hell will "break loose", "the damn strait" will open and "an entire civilization will die tonight".

Donald Trump's post reeks of profanity, and the war has not developed as the US and Israel had hoped.

- No regime change and no clear military victory. Then escalation is an option, something that all research and experience also show, says Anders Persson, senior lecturer in political science at Linnaeus University in Växjö.

Eleventh-hour bid?

Another scenario is that a mediation attempt actually succeeds.

– We have seen a number of such attempts before, from Pakistan and Turkey, among others, says Anders Persson.

A third way is for Russia and China to offer Trump a “step-down ramp” to end the war.

– It may not be so likely, but it has happened before. Perhaps there will be an eleventh-hour bid from these countries, either separately or together, says Anders Persson.

The clock is ticking

But as so often with the US president, it is difficult to know how he intends to act, emphasizes Anders Persson.

– Perhaps this time he will also “kick the can in front of himself”, as they say in American political language, that is, postpone the deadline once again.

With the deadline – which expires on Wednesday night, Swedish time – Trump wants to make a deal with Iran. Otherwise, he has threatened to bomb the country “back to the Stone Age”.

And while the clock is ticking, the attacks in Iran continue. On Tuesday, there were reports of explosions at bridges, railways and on the important oil island of Kharg.