Ryssland trappar upp it-kriget inför franska valet
Russia steps up cyberwar ahead of French elections
Agneta Liljeqvist/TT
Published 14.02
France has long been a strong voice for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Here, President Volodymyr Zelensky is received by Macron in Paris in January this year. Photo: Michel Euler/AP/TT
With eight months left until the French presidential election, Russia is stepping up its attempts to influence France.
Several presidential candidates have been subjected to smear campaigns directed by Russian intelligence, according to French authorities.
– The aim is to divide and polarize, says an expert.
Over the course of a few days, around the turn of July and August, several top French politicians were subjected to smear campaigns. In early August, fake and anonymous X and Tiktok accounts appeared claiming that former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is one of the top candidates for the 2027 presidential election, was suffering from the neurological disease Parkinson's, among other things. A few days earlier, a similar campaign had begun circulating claiming that Édouard Philippe, also a strong contender for the election, was suffering from dementia.
European Parliament member Raphaël Glucksmann, who has been openly critical of Russia, was also subjected to smear campaigns, in which his wife was accused, among other things, of bribing French newspapers to write positively about her husband. Glucksmann is tipped to run as a left-wing candidate in the presidential election.
“The Defense and National Security Agency (SGDSN) has informed me that I was the target of an attack carried out by the Storm1516 group, directly orchestrated by the GRU (Russian military intelligence service),” Glucksmann wrote on X after the incident.
Influencing the election
According to the French agency Viginum, which is tasked with combating foreign information influence on the Internet, the influence campaigns against French politicians can be linked to networks with ties to the Russian intelligence service GRU.
Since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, disinformation campaigns have increased against both France and other EU countries. After Ukraine, France is the country in Europe most exposed, according to figures seen by The Economist.
There are several reasons why the country is a target, according to Frederick Fooy, an expert on Russian and Chinese information influence at the Psychological Defense Agency.
“France is a large and important EU and NATO country that has supported Ukraine for a long time. This is of course a red flag for Russia,” says Fooy.
Another reason is the polarization in France, where extreme parties have become increasingly popular and political division is a fact. Russia wants to influence the country to move in a more pro-Russian direction. Ahead of next year's elections, several opinion polls signal that far-right politician Marine Le Pen could win.
Le Pen has previously shown support for Russia by defending the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and criticizing EU sanctions, although she has recently outwardly distanced her party from Moscow.
Creating polarization
The influence campaigns can take different forms. They can involve pure smear campaigns, such as President Emmanuel Macron allegedly having had dealings with the notorious American sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. But they also involve spreading disinformation that creates even greater polarization and contradictions in countries, says Fooy.
“Russia has become more aware of the cracks and contradictions that naturally exist in all societies, and it is often these that it tries to exploit by polarizing and fragmenting.
Another tactic is to try to flood information environments and the internet with AI-generated nonsense, explains Fooy, in order to, among other things, tire out news and media consumers.
– Consumers are being exhausted so that they stop thinking critically about sources or stop caring about news media at all, he says.
But it is not just Russian information influence that has increased recently. Since 2022, various types of hybrid activities have become more common, ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks across virtually all of Europe.
In early August, an explosive-laden drone was found at Leipzig-Halle airport in Germany, and authorities in the country do not rule out that a foreign power is behind it.
According to James Pamment, head of the Psychological Defense Research Institute at Lund University, Russia has stepped up its operations as pressure on Putin increases.
– Russia has become more aware of the cracks and contradictions that naturally exist in all societies, and it is often these that it tries to exploit by polarizing and fragmenting.
Another tactic is to try to flood information environments and the internet with AI-generated nonsense, Fooy explains, in order to, among other things, tire out news and media consumers.
– It tires consumers out so that they stop thinking critically about sources or stop caring about news media at all, he says.
But it is not just Russian information influence that has increased recently. Since 2022, various types of hybrid activities have become more common, ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks across virtually all of Europe.
In early August, an explosive-laden drone was found at Leipzig-Halle airport in Germany, and authorities in the country do not rule out that a foreign power is behind it.
According to James Pamment, head of the Psychological Defense Research Institute at Lund University, Russia has stepped up its operations as the pressure on Putin increases.
– Russia is waging a form of hybrid warfare against Europe and the country is constantly escalating its attempts and taking greater risks, he says.
Pig heads in Paris
As an example, Pamment mentions the pig heads that were placed outside several mosques in the Paris region in September last year. Several people, residing in Serbia, were arrested for the action, but according to French investigators, the traces lead to the Russian intelligence service GRU.
– They recruit professional criminals to come to France and carry out this type of action, says Pamment.
So what is the purpose of these operations? Fooy believes that an overall goal is to reduce, and preferably end, support for Ukraine and remove sanctions against Russia. But also to destabilize and create tensions within and between countries.
– Russia wants to divide and polarize both NATO and the EU, with a particular focus on the transatlantic link between Europe and the US, says Fooy.
Facts
French presidential election 2027
France will hold presidential elections on April 18, 2027, with a decisive second round on May 2.
So far, more than 30 politicians have officially announced their candidacy. More are expected to announce that they will run in the election. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is not allowed to run, as he has already served two terms.
Here are some of the most highly tipped:
Marine Le Pen, 58, candidate of the far-right National Rally party. Running for the fourth time.
Gabriel Attal, 37, party leader of Macron's centrist Renaissance party and former prime minister in his government.
Édouard Philippe, 55, party leader of the centrist Horizons party and mayor of Le Havre. Former prime minister in Macron's government.
Bruno Retailleau, 65, leader of the right-wing Republicans party.
Raphaël Glucksmann, 46, MEP tipped to be the candidate of the united left. Has not officially announced his candidacy.
François Hollande, 72, MEP for the Socialist Party and former president (2012–2017). Has not officially announced his candidacy.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 74, leader of the far-left Unrestrained France party. Running for the fourth time.
Source: Le Monde, Le Figaro and others
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