Dawod answers: What happens in Israel after the election?

 

Nivette Dawod 

Published 21:49

Will it be Bibi or not?

That is the most important question right now—as drawn-out negotiations lie ahead.

Aftonbladet foreign correspondent Nivette Dawod answers three questions about what will happen in Israel following this pivotal election.

► What is this really about?

Israel’s first election since the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023, has been defined by the issue of security.

The country is in the midst of an identity crisis after three years of war.

The choice now lies between "Mr. Security"—as Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu calls himself—and his opponent, Gadi Eisenkot.

Under Bibi, Israel has become an international pariah, facing accusations of genocide in Gaza and an increase in settler violence in the West Bank. There are strong indications that the Israeli public has grown tired of its leading figure—even though his Likud party appears set to emerge as the largest.

Gadi Eisenkot has benefited from the simple fact that he is not Bibi. His primary campaign focus has been on investigating the security failure of October 7 and holding Netanyahu accountable. He projects a calm demeanor—potentially serving as a unifying national figure—yet he is also known as a hawk. Can he heal Israel?

► What happens now?

Israel has always been governed by coalitions, and the process of assembling one can be lengthy. In the meantime, Benjamin Netanyahu remains as interim prime minister, allowing him to continue shaping Israel’s policies.

Smaller parties now wield significant influence. This time around, the Arab parties could hold the balance of power.

Because even if Netanyahu’s party emerges as the largest, that alone is not enough. Nor is the support of previous partners—the far-right parties—sufficient. Will Bibi seek support from Arab parties to retain power? It has happened before, though it did not go as far as forming a government.

Eisenkot’s coalition—comprising all parties that want to oust Netanyahu—also falls short of a majority. He has previously stated that he does not intend to cooperate with the Arab parties—a promise he may now have to break.

An unusual, yet not impossible, solution could be a unity government involving the two largest parties. Eisenkot, however, has firmly ruled this out.

► What happens now regarding Gaza and the West Bank?

The Israeli election has very little to do with changing policy toward the Palestinians, who, for their part, do not have the right to vote in Israel. Furthermore, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot supports the creation of a Palestinian state.

Israel’s military operations in Gaza have received minimal attention during the election campaign, simply because most Jewish Israelis support them. When Gaza is discussed among Israeli politicians, the focus is on the security failure of October 7, how the Palestinian territory should be governed once Hamas has been eliminated, and how the war in Gaza has affected Israel’s international standing.

As for the West Bank, the issue of settlements dominates the agenda. Netanyahu’s bloc favors further expansion, and extreme violence has escalated under his leadership.

Eisenkot takes a different approach: he seeks to improve relations with the international community, which has threatened to impose sanctions on Israel if settler violence continues to rise. 

Facts

The first election since the Hamas attack

The parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, is the first election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Israelis will elect 120 members to the parliament, the Knesset.

Forming a majority government requires the support of at least 61 members. However, no single party is expected to secure an outright majority. Consequently, coalition negotiations—and the role of smaller parties—will be decisive.

The election is being described as a nail-biter, as polls show a very tight race between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party and challenger Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist party, Yashar!

Netanyahu aims to continue governing alongside right-wing nationalist and religious parties. Eisenkot is attempting to assemble a broad coalition—comprising centrist, right-wing, and left-wing parties—all united by the goal of replacing Netanyahu. Yet, neither bloc appears likely to secure a majority. As a result, the Arab parties—with whom neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot wishes to cooperate—could end up holding the balance of power.