Russian invasion
Faltering support could become the West's worst nightmare
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 21:43
Columnists
This past weekend brought two ominous signs that European and US support for Ukraine is faltering.
Ukraine needs to be able to show success on the battlefield before the end of the year to reverse the trend.
Otherwise, the risk is obvious that Putin will ultimately draw the longest straw and that the West's worst nightmare will come true.
With only a few hours left until the deadline, the news came on Sunday night that the US Congress had agreed on a temporary budget. This means that the threat to shut down the American state apparatus could be temporarily averted, until November 17.
However, the good news contained a bad one.
In order to get the compromise through, the Democrats had to delete SEK 60 billion in aid to Ukraine from the budget.
The turnaround is not a total surprise.
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj visited Washington in September, Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to allow him to address the US House. A year ago, Zelenskyy was welcomed with a standing ovation by the same forum.
The dramatic shift in opinion cannot be described more clearly than that.
When Ukrainian President visited Washington in September, Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to allow him to speak. Photo: Nora Savosnick
President Biden says he assumes Congress will separately approve aid to Ukraine. But just the fact that the aid was taken away shows that the willingness of the Republicans to help Ukraine has decreased drastically.
Many Republican politicians are feeling the pressure from their own constituents who see no end to the war and think it is time to invest the money at home. Not least to overcome the heavy flow of migrants at the US's southern border with Mexico.
When Ukraine could show success in the war, it was easier to keep support alive. Now many Americans believe that Ukraine should instead try to reach a settlement with Vladimir Putin. Even if it would mean that Ukraine needs to cede part of its territory.
This weekend's shuffling in Congress over Ukraine aid is just a foreshadowing of what may lie ahead.
Next year there are presidential elections in the United States.
At the moment, it looks like the two ring corners will be occupied by an 82-year-old Joe Biden, whose capacity to govern the country is increasingly questioned even by the Democrats, and a 78-year-old Donald Trump, who, despite having five different charges hanging over him, leads by far on the Republican side.
High average age in the ring corners of power. Photo: AP: Manuel Balce Ceneta/Charlie Neibergall
Trump leads the Republican phalanx that wants to end or sharply reduce aid to Ukraine. If he wins the presidential election, the flow of American weapons will end.
Even if Biden wins, it is far from certain that he can get through the same extensive aid to Ukraine as today.
The Slovak politician Robert Fico calls himself a social democrat but went to the polls on the slogan "not a single bullet for Ukraine".
Yesterday it was clear that his party Smer won the election.
For the EU, this means that Russia has received yet another Trojan horse on European soil.
Since before, Hungary's Viktor Orban has played the role of Putin hugger. So far, Hungary has accepted support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, but Orban is increasingly vocal in his opposition to both.
Robert Fico visiting Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin in 2016. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Now it looks like he will have a partner in Robert Fico, even if he has to find coalition partners in order to form a government. It dampens his chances of completely cutting off aid to Ukraine, but is another indication that the longer the war looks like it will be, the harder it will be to keep military and financial support for Kiev alive.
In addition, Slovakia has until now been one of the most pushy in its support for Ukraine. The country was the first to send fighter jets.
Vladimir Putin has shown in the last 19 months that he has no thoughts whatsoever of giving up the war. No matter how bad things are on the battlefield, he is prepared to send in ever new battalions of young men as cannon fodder.
At the moment there is no domestic pressure to end the war. The slightest protest is enough to be sentenced to a long prison sentence. The Russians choose to keep quiet and bite the bullet.
In other words, time speaks for Putin.
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