Iran plays a trump card: "Trump under immense pressure"

Martin Mederyd Hårdh/TT

Published 07:06 | Updated 08:01

        

      Members of the Houthi movement in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on Thursday. Photo: STR/AP/TT

No peace in sight. Iran is tightening its grip on yet another of the world's most important shipping lanes. Oil prices are skyrocketing—again.

What can Donald Trump do?

"He has virtually no chance of success," says Fredrik Meiton of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).

The Houthi movement has escalated the long-running war in Yemen. In a rapid offensive, its forces have captured the coastal city of Mocha on the Red Sea, as well as islands in the strait just offshore.

The Iran-allied forces have effectively established control over the Bab al-Mandab—the strait that has long served as a crucial shortcut for maritime trade between Europe and Asia.

"This has been a looming risk since the war began. It is a card Iran has signaled it held up its sleeve—one it is now starting to play," says Fredrik Meiton, head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at UI.

**Sailing around Africa**

According to the Houthi movement, the blockade in the strait applies only to Saudi Arabia; however, the mere threat of attack has already caused traffic there to drop significantly during the years of conflict in the Middle East. The Houthis have fired upon around a hundred merchant vessels, and most major shipping companies choose to take a detour around the entire African continent. In the conflict with the US this year, perhaps Iran’s primary countermove has been to similarly halt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—the gateway to and from the Persian Gulf—thereby blocking a significant portion of global oil exports.

"It has had a powerful deterrent effect, compelling the US to make a number of concessions in an attempt to reopen the strait," says Fredrik Meiton.

He believes Iran has held back so as not to play all its cards at once.

"Now that they are facing escalated economic warfare from the US, they may have decided to escalate in turn by activating the Houthis."

"Knowing it won't work"

Oil prices have once again risen above $100 a barrel—a threshold Meiton views as a "pain point" that compels US President Donald Trump to act.

The question is how. According to media reports, Trump declined a Saudi request for assistance with airstrikes. Physically countering a drone threat would likely require ground forces. The latest approach—following the collapse of peace negotiations—has been for the US to ramp up "economic warfare."

"I think Trump realizes that this cannot yield the results he wants," says Fredrik Meiton, noting that pressure on the president is mounting ahead of the US midterm elections this autumn.

"He isn't prepared to commit ground troops. Nor is he willing to make the necessary compromises. So, he pretends to believe that economic warfare can get the job done."

Facts

The Houthi movement

The so-called Houthi movement—officially known as Ansar Allah (roughly translating to "Supporters of God")—has controlled a large part of war-torn Yemen for a decade. The Shia Islamist movement originated with the Zaydi al-Houthi clan, which historically held a ruling role in northwestern Yemen. It grew and became radicalized in opposition to Yemen’s participation in the US-led War on Terror during the 2000s.

In the wake of the Arab Spring, the movement went to war against Yemen’s internationally recognized government at a time when the latter was being shaken by popular protests and South Yemeni separatists. The Houthis were backed by Iran, while the government was supported by a Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Hundreds of thousands of people have died in a conflict that is still ongoing. Houthi forces seized power in the capital, Sanaa, in 2015.

The Houthi movement is part of Iran’s regional coalition alongside the Palestinian group Hamas and the Lebanese group Hezbollah. During the conflicts that have roiled the Middle East in recent years, they have fired upon Israel and attacked cargo ships in the heavily trafficked waters off the coast of Yemen.